2012Q1 Trade/Investment summary

Time for another quarterly results. These 3 months really didnt buy much, so only left 2 stocks with me.
Just happen to be same as last quarter also, total sold stocks = 6.
Well, for those 2 that I'm holding especially Sunreit, the profit increase only from dividend received (not shown in the table). Note that last quarter also close at 1.25.  For Leader, still waiting for the capital repayment, well if  I get back my money in the next 3 month at 1.10, I still gain a 10% in less than 1 year, much better than many unit trust and with a very low risk. Remember Value Investment (VI)  gain is slow and steady, really need patience.

VI -Coastal Mar12 followup

On 19Feb, I did put up a post on Momentum Play for Coastal, well this MP play has failed and the stop at 2.32 has been broken on 28/3 (2.28). As on 24/Mar, she did another breakdown & close at 2.16. Things getting interesting for Value Invest as she has fallen for about 20% from the recent peak of 2.70. So, is time to accumulate for those are very into Fundamental Play. Buy some around 2.10, if fall further to 2.0, accumulate some more but always remember to maintain cash to share ratio at below 30% since the general market is quite weak.

What about the TA landscape, hmmmmm....she has a strong support around 2.10 (200MA) and another horizontal support at 2.05. Well, if the 1st support didnt do her job, then things would not be so optimistic.
Since I'm into hybrid play, I would monitor closely around these 2 level of support to check on any rebound for a re-enter.

Lets see how see performs in the next few weeks.

Support/Resistance complement with trendlines

Lets take BIMB as as example. I did mention about her on 18/Dec , http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/12/momentum-play-bimb.html
That day, I was entering at 1.94 which is a bit late base on resistant breakout play. I did mention I saw her later, based on Technical landscape which is still positive, I decided is still okay to enter.

Based on the chart, one should enter at 1.86 as she has broken a resistance, 20MA & 200MA, with all those MACD & Stochastic giving bullish signals. Today my post objective is about when to P . In my previous post I mention P should be around 2.07~2.09. Well, in 7 days time she did reached 2.07, so I have sold based on my plan. That time when I do this plan I just intend to make a short term MP. But if one to have more PATIENCE (an important factor for Share Trading), you can go for TREND CHANNEL strategies. Let see below chart.

I have sold on 3 Jan base on my trading plan (P at 2.07~2.09). In the above chart, I draw the trend channel which project the price will reach 2.28 at the upper trendlines. Indeed, she manage to climb till 2.28 and started retrace after this.

Further extension of the chart shown above, she again manage to push further after retracing to lower bollinger band and touch again the upper TRENDLINE which give a good 11% return at 2.40. So, the next questions is, will she retrace to lower band and climb one more time or this time she will retraces to the LOWER TRENDLINES around


 So, my story here is that no one strategies is the best or 100% correct, one must choose his or her best suited strategies & trading plan to trade and do not regret . Bottom line is PROFIT in most of our trade and my objectives is to be better than or at least on par with the best unit trust returns.

Trend channels which is which ?

Trend channels or trendlines are used widely by traders. Sometimes you may find the channels are giving more reliable signals for one to sell or buy than classical resistance or support. But there is a weakness when using trend channels, as my tittle said, which is which ? I used Paramon as a case . Paramon is a good FA stock though I did not monitor her closely.

In the 1st chart, which I named trendline A, it is still not the right time to buy, one need to wait till 1.52 which will be the bottom trendline support to go long. But then again, different people may have different viewing perspective which I come upon trendline B when I observed the chart further. In trendline line B, Paramon has rebounded from the 1.58 support and closes at 1.61 (a buy signal).

So, how to play ?
To those traders that does not want to miss the opportunity, one should enter position if Monday intraday can goes higher than 1.61. These again based on probability, the true support may not be 1.58, so one should enter with a smaller position and keep some remaining bullets to average down at 1.52 if really the trendline A is the way the market really wants Paramon to go.

What about you are conservative ? So, just wait till 1.52 to enter, if she really doesn't goes down to this level, just forget about her and moves on to hunt for another better probability stocks.

Hope you all gets my point. I may talk more on my first comment that trend channels are more reliable to buy & sell if I able to find a simple to understand chart to elaborate on this.

Market sentiment update.....

Well, the Fbmscap have rebounded with a white candle. Stochastic & MACD is showing bullish signal, well these are signals that a small cap can be played but I still think this entry time frame must be short as the Fbmklci is approached her highest peak soon. So, if one use TA and with a bit of lady luck, we can earn some decent money on this. For those really conservative, no harm wait for the bigger correction but there is no guarantee is a correction or a reversal trend until the chart tells you later.

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