Sept 2016 : UPDATE on MP stocks

GKENT (sold all at 2.55, a profit of 46%, a good catch, no more holdings)
GADANG (did manage to get at 2.32, so bought at 2.70, sold half at 2.88 to lock in some profit, while remaining will do a trailing stop)
OLDTOWN (bought at 1.93, sold half at 2.03, but some remaining at 1.89 due to broke 20MA , so average sold price around 1.96, no more holdings).
POHUAT (sold some at 1.64 at breakeven to reduce portfolio, the rest manage to sell at 1.70 as per my plan, no more holdings). Luckily strictly follow plan, now at 1.57 only.


Review some new stocks to be buy in this few weeks, depending on the price movement & buy signal.

(Target Entry -TE: ?, Median Fair Value -MFV by investment banks : ?, consideration point )

1) CSCSTEL : (TE 1.45? MFV: no data)

2) DSONIC : (TE 1.43. MFV : 1.87, upside 30%. PE a worry point : 27+ which is really high)

3) MITRA : (TE : 1.33/close above 1.41. MFV : 1.72, upside 29%. Note: wait for volume rebound around 1.33 then only enter or close above 1.41 with confident?)

4) PADINI : (TE : 2.81. MFV : 2.91, upside 3.5% only. Should not consider ?)

5) PRLEXUS : (TE: ? still in downtrend, need to wait , MFV : no data.)

6) TAMBUN : (TE : 1.51, MFV: 1.64, upside 8.6% only)

7) TIENWAH : ( TE: close above 1.72 with vol?, MFV : no data)

8) UNISEM : (TE : 2.63, MFV : 2.85, upside 8% only)\

9) CHINWEL : (TE: 1.61, MFV : no data)

10) LIIHEN : (TE : wait for rebound above 20MA around 3.20, MFV : no data)

11) JOHOTIN : (TE: 2.30, MFV : no data)


From the above, I see Mitra & Dsonic have the highest upside.Lets monitor further.

As usual : Caveat emptor. The above is for my own analysis only. It is not a recommendation to buy/sell.

BEEN BUSY, but still trade some stocks

I have been quiet nearly for 5 months as I does not trade much.
In these few months, I have been trading a few stocks only .

Momentum play -Stocks traded are
GKENT (purchase at 1.74, sold some at 1.89, remain some qty)
GADANG (sold too early, only earn RM0.10/unit, intended to buy again around 2.32)
OLDTOWN (bought at 1.93, still awaiting for her to breakout from squeezing)
TOMYPAK (lose a little, cut at 2.51)
CYPARK (lose a little, cut at 2.03)
POHUAT (sold some at 1.64 at breakeven to reduce portfolio, keep some to sell at 1.70)

If Tomypak, I dont follow the cut loss rule, I would have lost more, now at 1.75.
For Cypark, I bought 2.02, after seeing the movement a bit not convincing, I reduce my holding by selling some at 2.03, the rest I cut loss at 1.88 but now at 2.00.

See, sometime you cut loss, the stock go south, you feel  good as you follow your strategy but sometimes like Cypark, she rebound back and the technical look good now, but still have to remind myself , as long as I have decided the buy is based on Momentum play, I must follow my cut loss strategy.

Value Invest
I'm still keeping my Sunreit & Matrix.
For Value Invest, I would keep and may average down further like Matrix.
My average price for her is at 2.62 but now she is only at 2.52 but I have been taking dividends around >RM0.14 yearly and I have her since Apr2015, so I'm considering I'm already at positive.
Lets see, she can break the 2.58 resistance. I will start selling her around RM2.80?

thats all for today. will try to update more frequent.

As always, caveat emptor.

Part 2 : ACE IPO .... Can you gain on ACE IPO?

In my Part 1 , I mentioned I study the data from 2014 to 2016.
But for ACE, since the listing stocks is lesser, I have accounted from 2011 to 2016,
there is a total of 10 stocks.

From the table above, we can do a simple analysis

1) With the same Main IPO strategy as before but this time we target 20% profit or sell at 3rd day closing.  Your success rate in Profiting from the IPO is 100%. All 9 stocks earn 20%, while only Krolonogi earn 10.5% on the 3rd day.

Let see another strategy, this one will give better high gain but Krolonogi will end up only about breakeven.

So, ACE IPO is much better than Mainboard IPO from my 2 Part analysis.

As always,caveat emptor, my writing is solely for learning purposes and no intention to make any buy or sell call.

Part 1 : Main Board IPO ....Can you gain from applying IPO?

Recently I have discussing the IPO topic with my sis and friends.
My sis though not favor on applying IPO but she did applied for Chin Hin.
She did not get back her money 1 day before listing date, so she thought she
was being allocated some shares. When seeing the price jump 25% above the
issue price, she was only too excited to be disappointed to know she wasn't allocated any.

This lead me to remember back my uni years (1993) when my friends and I use to apply IPO to
earn some extra pocket money. That time, we will sell it on the 1st day when we were lucky
being allocated some shares. That time all our successful allotted IPO gain above their issue price.

I have did a summary from 2014 till Mar/2016 to evaluate on the success rate of KLSE main board IPO. I have excluded all ETF which has very low liquidity and most probable will drop below issue price. I also excluded SPAC stocks like RSENA due to the experience of Hibiscus which we see the price will drop below issue price and not go up till they have identified a potential purchase candidat. In the Part 2, I will summarize on ACE IPO.

From the above, one can see if our strategy is q to sell at 10% gain, if by 3rd day, the q still not done, will sell at closing,  our success rate is 77% which I think is a good probability. Only 3 out of 18 stocks (16.7%) will end up lost money. One can tweak the strategy to 15% gain target which would also give a good success rate with better return rate.

So, what would you think of this ?  Is it worth while to apply for Main Board IPO ?

As usual, caveat emptor on all my writings

SKPETRO follow-up

Today , SKPetro has broke below the 1.92 trailing stop set . Thus, profit is taken with a 19% gain.
Lets see whether this is a whipsaw or true retracement. If is a whipsaw, she may close above 2.04 with high volume, then the next trade would be a higher entry point than the 1.92 sold price.
As a trader, we should follow the signal at this moment and not hope for the closing of today as a whipsaw. Action must be activated as the trading plan. If she goes down as per prediction, then we can wait for another buy signal to enter at a lower price than our sold price today.

SKPETRO - A good counter trend trading candidate

Is been a while since I pen down anything. Really need to push myself to record down my trades or analysis.

Just in 2 months time, Skpetro offer 2 trading opportunities. 1 is on 23/Dec/2015, enter at 1.71 and take profit on 7/Jan/2016 (a 15 days trade) to gain profit at 1.89 (a 10%). Not a very outstanding one but a good one indeed.
Then 26/Jan/2016, one more opportunities to enter at 1.61, till now if still follow my sell signal , the trade is open and with a trailing profit of 16%, Lets see how this trade able to give how much % of profit

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

Is been 4 months since I wrote anything.

Just pure busy and when there is time, just need to relax.

Well, a new year has arrived. Meaning a new portfolio.

I have a positive returen in my 2015 portfolio though the KLCI index has -5%. 

But it still below my target of 20% compounding annual return no matter KLCI positive or negative.

Thus, I need to revised my strategy a bit to improve further to achieve my target this year.

Currently, I holding Tomypak, Matrix, Sunreit, Pwroot, Century. All in Momentum play except Matrix & Sunreit which I has been keeping for their 6% dividends.

As time goes by , I will change these holding. Will try to update as live as possible. 

Currently, I'm aiming Liihen & Supermx for a good enter position.