SUNREIT NOV2014 FOLLOW-UP

Is been nearly 2 months since I pen down something.
Is been a bad month for the mid to long term investor as they see their holdings back to their purchase price.

Example : My friend has been holding his Supermx (entry ~2.06) & Pantech (entry ~0.93) since 2013, and as Friday closing , he is at losing/breakeven position after holding for more than 1 year. Supermx close at 2.03 and Pantech at 0.93. Imagine if one is following strictly based on charts to sell Supermx at 2.65 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 28%) and sell Pantech at 1.00 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 7%).

I believe one really need to know when to sell. There is less than 10% of KLCI's  stocks which really gain consistently  throughout very long term holding. Nowadays every 5 or 10 years will be a big downtrend which will reset all your gains. So, I would really advised KLCI stock investor to learn how to let go of his beloved so call very strong FUNDAMENTAL stock and buy back later.

Sunreit is my long term portfolio, some portion I have been holding for >3 years which give me a good 15% annual compounding while the rest enter later did not do a good job in the annual compounding return. During the downtrend, I have to bear the pain on holding the loses nearly for 7 months. Luckily the downtrend only last 7 months. This time, I will do it differently, I will sell at least 75% (or maybe 100%) of my Sunreit holding when she break my weekly trailing stop at 1.47. Then will come back for her when she show signs of changing back to uptrend. Well , lets see this support 1.47 will hold or not.

37% gain in 3 months ! What do ya think ?

My previous blog, I did mention, if one is interested to load some SUPERMX, can try getting around 2.17, she really did give everyone a chance to load up on 28/Aug.
Well, as per my observation, SUPERMX is catching up with her peers in terms of PE.
Her peers are trading around 18~21 while she is catching up around 15~16.
My valuation of her intrinsic value is around 2.82 and today she is closes at 2.74, getting fully value soon. Well, after fully value, I should take my profit, if I'm greedy I'll continue using trailing stop strategy . Hmmm.....technically the next resistance is 3.04 but she may take a breather around 2.82 ? Lets see, I may just make a decision tomorrow to take or not to take if she reaches 2.82 or to wait for 3.04. Will she able to reach ? Time will tell.
And now is not the time to chase as a very good opportunity is given on 28/Aug has passed.

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Its a bird, its a plane, no ! is SUPERMAN !!! errr... SUPERMAX ?

Just some follow up on my Supermx, just want to create some interested title. Last few days, had a talk with my sis about my blog. She say I should put some more interesting Title instead of boring ones, e.g " Supermx : Aug2013 Follow up. So, here it is, the above title. Hmm, I've been holding on to Supermx since June2013, Its been 2 months and already up 16.7% from my entry price. Well, I purchase on Value Invest strategy, so I will hold on for a while as she yet to near my intrinsic value calculation. Btw, as time goes on, Kossan TTM PE has already chase near the Harta & Top Glove, wonder Supermx need the power of the Man of Steel to boost faster to catch up with his peers as time is running out as when the quarter earning reports started and end around end Aug, I would expect some market pull back (prediction base on past years records).

I told my sis about Supermx that I blogged, she asked me, can enter at this price ? Well, as she is my sis, I wouldnt mind giving her my opinion. I told her, Supermx price has just form a Doji candle and is resisted by 2.33 Resistance line, it would be risky to enter now, if she retrace to around 2.16 would be a good entry point. I didnt advise her on the breakout strategy as I think if Supermx would to breakout, the running is too fast for a person who are not familiar with TA short term trading.

2.33 is a resistance, well, if she do well in clearing this then I would expect the next one, 2.43 and 2.50. By then, I would definitely cash out some money to ease my greed/fear, haha, then i would let him ride till near the analyst FV which is around 2.44 (which is around the next resistance) where I will use some TA technics to perform some trailing stop loss monitoring to take profit for the rest of my holdings. As always, lets see how she goes, time will tell.

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Supermx : July Follow-up

Well, SUPERMX broke out convincingly from her immediate downtrend.
At least the 1st target 2.17 would be reachable in probability point of view.
Will she change to uptrend ? Time will tell.
As I say, all her compatriots already fly to a PE range of 15~19, but she is still around 11+.
Lets see, she able to do catch up.
For Fair Value, just refer back to http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2013/06/value-invest-supermx.html .
Hmmm, even Kossan has catch up with Top Glove & Harta.
My previous blog, Kossan TTM PE is only 12.2, as of today her PE has risen to 15.7.
Hmmm, I should have put some money into Kossan aside Supermx.

As always, caveat emptor

Value Invest : SUPERMX

When I say value invest, meaning I'm will be hold.ing based on her fundamental. The period again depends whether want to gain a higher % of profit or just a short trade. Well, I have enter into position at 2.00 when I mentioned about her the last post. She have jump out from the short term downtrend but slowly dissipate back to the trendline level. Today she just ex-div (6% of par value of RM0.50 = RM0.03), so my cost would be RM1.97.

Based on my intrinsic value calculation, Supermx is valued at RM2.82.
Let see what the analyst Fair Value.
Today she is at 2.00, 4 out of 5 analyst say is a BUY.
Well, RHB target price is similar to mine :)
So they were accurate, then at least a gain of >16% would be good.

Date	Open Price	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Price Call	Source
31/05/2013	2.04	2.60	+0.56 (27.45%)	BUY	TA
31/05/2013	2.04	2.84	+0.80 (39.22%)	BUY	RHB
31/05/2013	2.04	2.39	+0.35 (17.16%)	BUY	KENANGA
31/05/2013	2.04	2.37	+0.33 (16.18%)	BUY	CIMB
31/05/2013	2.04	2.04	0.00 (0.00%)	HOLD	ALLIANCE

Currently Supermx is trading at a TTM PE of 10.8 which is quite low among her peers.
I'm using TTM (Trailing Twelve months as I think it is more real time rather than Maybank ost data which only used the closing financial year EPS)
Lets have a look on her peers :
Top Glove : Price 650 TTM EPS = 36.39, so TTM PE=17.8 (Maybank ost data = 19.93)
Harta : Price 574  TTM EPS = 32.11, so TTM PE= 17.9  (Maybank ost data = 17.95)
Kossan :  Price 440   TTM EPS 36.2, so TTM PE =12.2  (Maybank ost data = 13.47)

So, if there is some catch up to follow her peers, Supermx should at least trade at 12.2 ? which the price would be around RM 2.25 ? or trade at PE 17, then the price would be RM3.13 ?

What about growth, according to RHB, she will grow around 11~13%.
Hmm, when I decided to keep a share, I would like to have some dividend to make my keeping worth, at least around Fix Deposit rate. Well, she is forecast to give around 3% this year.

Let see whether she lives up to her name.....SuperMax ......

Buy in May and hold all the way?

Is always been the old saying sell in May and go away but this time is different it is  "Buy in May and hold all the way". Almost every stocks have a good run. The 7 stock that I mentioned in the last 2 post, 3 (Pantech, Uoadev, Sunway, Padini & GUH) have run aggressively. RHBCap did run but not so much, only 6%. Only remaining is Supermx. She has just reach her short term downtrend line. Just need a little push with some volume, she will have some good flying. Really depends on the market or the boss want her to fly at this moment. Being a darling in 2009~2010, she is really disappointing in the recent 2012~2013, lets see she really can have some move, these few days will tell.

Mission Accomplished ! Well done Supermx !

As per the trading plan in http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/bingo-uoadev-supermx.html, Supermx has reached his 2nd profit target RM3.60 (22% gain in 5 days) after reaching 3.41 in the morning. His intraday high is 3.63. So, for momentum play, the mission has been accomplished. Seems like 'superman" finally get rid of the kryptonite thats been affecting her flight for 1 year + , haha....

Technically, he need to flight above the 3.60 and the 200MA enemy (resistance!) to break free. As usual super hero cannot win all in a single battle, if not the movie will end fast (haha!). So, expect some tough fight here or maybe our Superman finally fully charged up and leap in a single bound ?

BINGO ! UOADEV & SUPERMX

Yesterday momentum stock pick was a " STRIKE" (as is in bowling). UOADEV leap with a single bound of 12.58%. Well, in bowling getting a strike for those amateur is part skill , part luck. As bowling is one of my hobby, I'm consider still amateur though I did got a champion in one of my company tournaments. Time have pass so fast that I've not touch the ball for a few years already. In trading, as I'm considered a trained/graduate Technical Analysis guy but recently I'm venturing into Fundamentals (just been doing study lately), in such a harsh environment of downtrend, just by picking purely using TA has only 60% success probability rate and the 40% need the LUCK side (hmmm, I believe Feng Shui can help boost up some of the luck side). Remember the Profit target 1.77~1.80 ? Greed must be controlled !!! Given such regional condition, I really believe, the last push really very much depends on Dow performs tonight.

Actually, yesterday I wanted to post another stock pick together with UOADEV, but I decided not to, as sleeping is more important to me. She is SUPERMX, so, actually I did get a "DOUBLE". Hmmm, Entry should be 2.97, Cut loss 2.80 and Profit tgt 3.4 (for conservative)or 3.60.  If the syndicate decide to play for a few day, 3.70 would be possible. Just do a little study, you will realise all glove goes up today, lets see how many days they are playing this time. 

See the index glove that I create (consist of Top Glove, Harta, Supermx, Latexx, Kossan, Adventa), the graph is moves in tandem with supermx, meaning glove stocks are in play .