The bulls is really aggressive ! Hopefully it will last long enough ...

It have been very bullish for the small cap stocks, the price of nearly all small cap stocks has raced too fast and even gap up and continue climb to one's believe. Is been 6 trading days, seems look like she will last another 1 week. Well , lets see how she goes. I have taken profit on my Pantech. Entered Padini & GUH for a very short trade, lets see whether can gain some. Too itch hand to just sit and watch them climb like no resistance in front. To chase such a bullish situation after so many days is risky, so my positions are very small.

Last week is really breathtaking !

A bad week for trading really is . Drop consecutively for 5 straight days for Small Caps and and only able to breathe for a day due to Dow overnight big rise (244pt). Well, from the chart, a bullish harami was formed on Friday, will our stocks rebound, I need to see how Monday close. If there is a rebound, it would be good till 20MA at least . For trading, the risk has increased. So, lets see are we in confirming a downtrend for FBMSCAP or is there the birth of an uptrend. In a matter of a week or 2 will tell. For me, I did not hold any MP stocks (for trading), I only holding investment stocks (which I would be holding on them for at least 3~12 months). I'm still on a look out should I trade in such a hostile environment or uncertain time.

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY !

May is very near....Remember the old saying in trading ...."Sell in May & Go Away".
Why is this so???.... Hmmm, maybe because of the School holiday ??? Where the Fund Managers
will sell their holdings and go for vacation with their family ??? Or maybe in this 2012 will be a up year
for month of May ?

Lets check the history data, actually I would like to take a look only at the FBMSCAP rather that FBMKLCI cause in FBMSCAP consist of more stocks which most of us will buy into it. But my data only have 3 years of this and the result is 2 down/ 1 up, so is 67% probability (anyway I think the data would be too little to show). See below

Let see FBMKLCI , is 9 down/8 up which is only 53% . So, the saying of Sell in May & go away is not so valid for our Malaysia market. So, lets see how this 2012 May will display a Red Candle or a White Candle. My pick is a Red one. Time will tell :)

Market sentiment update.....

Well, the Fbmscap have rebounded with a white candle. Stochastic & MACD is showing bullish signal, well these are signals that a small cap can be played but I still think this entry time frame must be short as the Fbmklci is approached her highest peak soon. So, if one use TA and with a bit of lady luck, we can earn some decent money on this. For those really conservative, no harm wait for the bigger correction but there is no guarantee is a correction or a reversal trend until the chart tells you later.

How's the overall market sentiment on 27/Feb/12 ?

Well, lets have a look at FBMSCAP, this index will tell you the overall market as most of us are buying small cap rather than those top 100 shares (FBMT100 which inclusive of the 30 index link big cap).
Well, overall the market is still healthy and she is still in the consolidation phase which I think in TA terms is not yet a buy call. But for those really into FA, is the 1st shopping stage. I would put some money into my favourite stocks for MP when the Fbmscap really show some rebound.

For our main index FBMKLCI, she is still uptrend & bullish but blocked at a resistance 1566. If one look at the chart closely, the bullish momentum is diminishing but again see our big boy want to push her further or not. 1600 ,any guess ? If there is a breakout above 1566 but the volume still at low, then there will only a safe bet on big cap stocks & I believe Fbmscap will continue her sideway or downtrend. So, picking big cap would have a higher probability, then again now is still too early to dictate anything as the volume will tell me where our overall market sentiment will go.