KFIMA follow up

alwayswin111 said...

Rei,
Could you help me to look at KFIMA chart.
My opinion. KFIMA is trading in a box range (1.45-1.68).
On Friday it closed with a doji at 1)upper boll band 2)upper range of box. 3)below price resistance
I think if it breaks 1.68 strongly , then can do a trade
E>1.68. S1..64. T1.87 with immediate resistance at 1.77
But if it is bearish on Monday.. Then we wait for pullback to 1.62-1.60
Closing below 1.62 would be very bearish i.e evening star at resistance
Indicators are very bullish at the moment.

Rei comment.....
Have you entered Kfima ?
Well she is trading in a range of 1.44~1.69, my chart showed a bid difference from you, maybe your chart did not adjust the dividend recently.
Yes, if she trade above above 1.69, there will be a technical breakout from her trading range (box). But the immediate resistance is too near 1.75. Again, her reward risk ratio is not so good. In TA point of view, she is not consider a good trade set-up. But as my previous post http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/kfima-momentum-play-value-invest.html  mentioned a HOLD based on her FA. Another point of view in TA terms is MACD line has go above zero and she may be continued climbing the short term uptrend channel (retrace, up and retrace for a few time before reaching 1.75 or 1.83.)

Value Invest - COASTAL (5071)

After studying her for some time on her fundamental strengths and with a confirmation from my friend (who has a firm wealth building strategy using value investment), I decided to post her out as she has started to show some signal technically.

Fundamentally (Rate : 5 star !!!)
This is what I want to stress , she is a real GEM in terms of value investing.
Today closing price = 1.94 
Current PE ratio = 4.67  (based on last year EPS)
TTM PE ratio =4.12
2010 ROE = 33.34%
Dividend Yield ~ 3.4%
Intrinsic value = 4.65 (based on a very conservative & discounted calculation).

Since now she is at 1.94, which is at 41% of her intrinsic, she is a real bargain and gem.

Note : OSK rated Fair Value = 3.38

Technically, 

Stochastic has already given buy signal on 25/Oct but vol was not convincing then.
Today, MACD has flash a buy signal coming in (tomorrow confirm ?).
TA strategy : Breakout play
Entry =1.98  , Cut loss if break below 1.79, Profit target = 2.19.

Mission Accomplished ! Well done Supermx !

As per the trading plan in http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/bingo-uoadev-supermx.html, Supermx has reached his 2nd profit target RM3.60 (22% gain in 5 days) after reaching 3.41 in the morning. His intraday high is 3.63. So, for momentum play, the mission has been accomplished. Seems like 'superman" finally get rid of the kryptonite thats been affecting her flight for 1 year + , haha....

Technically, he need to flight above the 3.60 and the 200MA enemy (resistance!) to break free. As usual super hero cannot win all in a single battle, if not the movie will end fast (haha!). So, expect some tough fight here or maybe our Superman finally fully charged up and leap in a single bound ?

KFIMA -Momentum Play & Value invest

I heard of this KFIMA stock quite a while but have not been purchase her before.
Recently, I found she has just broke above the 200MA which quite a lot of stocks in KLCI
still below this.

TA (Technical Analysis)
MACD 4R1G just flash buy signal and now her price is following a short term uptrend line.
Entry will be 1.64, Stop loss close below 1.55 & Profit at 1.69. Volume after 10am need to be >85k units.
Hmm, technically, the risk reward ratio is not attractive. Only Fast in Fast out. Well, what about bull & hold for a while in fundamental point of view ?

FA (Fundamental Analysis)
I have go thru her 2002~2011 EPS growth. Very attractive in the last 5 years. Based on the growth & earnings, she at least worth >1.83 (her recent peak). Cashflow is good. I'm in the middle of checking her intrinsic value (= her real worth if you treat yourself a long term investor), will blog out her worth later.
At 1.62 today, her PE ratio =6 .

25/Oct
Finally calculated out her intrinsic value (Fair value for some may use), she worth about 1.86 after taking into consideration she is a small cap & also assuming her EPS growth will be consistent or similar to these recent few years. I would rate her as a HOLD for FA point of view. Note : My rating for Accumulate for FA stocks is those with huge discount >30~50%% from her intrinsic value.

What is your STRATEGY for Wealth Building?

Many years ago, I jump into market just to INVEST, and the horror is without a single knowledge of Fundamentals or TA or reading any annual reports or anything required one to be in market. I jump in as I seen my mom happily investing  and earning money in the market. Thats the year of 1990s, where our Malaysia market is having some bulls. I earn some money then and those paper loss I keep as I was told that one day the price will come back to my purchase price or higher. Then came 1997, the market crash, I got burnt as I was still holding on to those paper loss company.

From 1999, there is a mini bull run, I again without learning jump into the wagon again to TRADE this time, again still without any TA or FA knowledge, just purely RA (Rumours analysis), haha , this time I got smarter, I just got out before the dotcom bust with some profit though still not recovering the 1997 lost !!!

My point here !!!
If you earn money in 1 year or even 2 years in the market, can you say you are SMART and are those in the 10% group that earning money in the market and not those 90%? Lets see... I did earn money from 1994~ 1996 (3 years), that time I thought earning money in the market is easy as long as you have the patience and holding power. Then came 1997, my profit was wipe off and also my savings, some stocks was delisted !!! See, one cannot give a conclusion that he/she has the knowledge to earn money from market even he consistently profiting for a few years. If someone tell me that market is a risky place to put my  money during 1996, I will tell him , are you nuts ? see my record, 3 years in the market and still earning money. Its also same for other investment, be it property, trading business or even manufacturing. So, in order to be success in the market and be the 10%, one need to profit enough money keep back your capital in the FD and only use those profited money in your portfolio for investing or trading. No matter how things turn out, you are still the winner as you will not lose your capital  (As Warren Buffet rule#1, DO NOT LOSE MONEY).

STRATEGY ! STRATEGY ! STRATEGY !
During 1999, I got a good friend told me a story of his friend, he use all his savings and even mortage his house to INVEST in the market that being badly beaten around 1998. He put the money there in some CI stocks and dont even review or monitor them. He then started to monitor his stocks only after 1 year (1999), imagine, his wealth has DOUBLE UP !

I did not involve much in the market during 2000 ~ 2008, as I still have the heart pain of 1997 loss. So, came again the crash in 2008, this time I told the same 1999 story to my colleagues, but non of them believe is workable and I got hesistated. So, I decided to use my 1999 strategy (IN OUT, IN OUT) to play the bull run that started 2009. This time, I told myself EDUCATION/KNOWLEDGE is important, so I pay to go for CNX course (a pure Technical Analysis) course beginning 2010. The course did help me a lot in my money management & timing my purchase (though only 60~70% success rate).

During 2009 & 2010, I did earn some money but I still find that one of my weak point here is I do not have a CONCRETE STRATEGY to build my wealth ! as I only learn to gain small profit of fast in fast out of a market. 2009 & 2010 is another once in a decade for people to DOUBLE UP HIS WEALTH, I miss the 1998~1999 and now I miss the 2009~2010 run !!!! Really get frustrated with myself.  No choice, everyone here has an itch fingers nowadays to IN OUT IN OUT of a stock , then life only is FUN. The other thing is I'm lack of fundamental knowledge that will help in giving me confidence to keep my good stock during these 2 years bull run. Example, if one has bought PBBANK during 2009 (around RM7) and KEEP till now, your wealth is still near to DOUBLE. Even with this recent BIG CRASHES, you still can sold off half at your own sweet time and keep your capital (Preserving capital is important , right ?) and let the remaining in the market earning 5% dividend every year till you retire. Imagine this is what I call PASIVE INCOME.

So, I keep telling myself, I need to come out with a strategy that have a portfolio that consist of VALUE INVESTING (for building PASSIVE INCOME) and MOMENTUM PLAY (for my itch finger and also can gain faster if luck is with me). Note: momentum play need TA knowledge with LUCK okay! I have the TA knowledege though not expert and now I need the luck ! Everyone likes thrill and fun in short term, so momentum play is fill with THRILLS !!!

Have you plan out a Wealth Building strategy ?

BINGO ! UOADEV & SUPERMX

Yesterday momentum stock pick was a " STRIKE" (as is in bowling). UOADEV leap with a single bound of 12.58%. Well, in bowling getting a strike for those amateur is part skill , part luck. As bowling is one of my hobby, I'm consider still amateur though I did got a champion in one of my company tournaments. Time have pass so fast that I've not touch the ball for a few years already. In trading, as I'm considered a trained/graduate Technical Analysis guy but recently I'm venturing into Fundamentals (just been doing study lately), in such a harsh environment of downtrend, just by picking purely using TA has only 60% success probability rate and the 40% need the LUCK side (hmmm, I believe Feng Shui can help boost up some of the luck side). Remember the Profit target 1.77~1.80 ? Greed must be controlled !!! Given such regional condition, I really believe, the last push really very much depends on Dow performs tonight.

Actually, yesterday I wanted to post another stock pick together with UOADEV, but I decided not to, as sleeping is more important to me. She is SUPERMX, so, actually I did get a "DOUBLE". Hmmm, Entry should be 2.97, Cut loss 2.80 and Profit tgt 3.4 (for conservative)or 3.60.  If the syndicate decide to play for a few day, 3.70 would be possible. Just do a little study, you will realise all glove goes up today, lets see how many days they are playing this time. 

See the index glove that I create (consist of Top Glove, Harta, Supermx, Latexx, Kossan, Adventa), the graph is moves in tandem with supermx, meaning glove stocks are in play .

Stock Pick-Momentum Play

Starting from today, I will once a while select some stocks and categorised them either as Momentum Play (short term) or Value Invest (long term). Today I pick UOADEV as tomorrow momentum play.
Entry only if reached at 1.56, Cut loss if closes below 1.41, target profit 1.77~1.80. Another criteria is Dow & our CI must at least slight positive. Let see this trade is ON tomorrow or not.

FBMKLCI short term going uptrend ?

Fbmklci have really a good rally these 4 weeks, and she has run up about 123 points, indeed if anyone pick some stocks around 1388, sure one will gain especially those bought in the FBMT100 stocks. As now she is approaching the 1474 point, it is getting interesting as these is a previous strong support (see those magenta shadings), then broke and turn into a strong resistance. So, my take is she will have a hard time passing thru this area but if she can take out this resistance in a go, then , it will be very bullish which I dont think so. Well, lets expect some retracement for our CI, and see whether 1423 and 1400 can support and form a higher low. If yes, then this support area would be good to go long again. If not, there expect another sell down. Lets see how it goes. Time will tell.

DIALOG

Moral of  today :
Less signal confirmation>>higher risk>>higher gain.
More signal confirmation >> lower risk >> lower gain
(I use Dialog to elaborate my point....)

On 23Sept11, I told my friend that Dialog is ripe to catch the knife as she has broken 3 support in 3 days !!!. So I told him lets catch at RM1.84 at the 4th support , it should be quite safe. Indeed she rebound from the next trading day onwards and there is a good rebound with a 25%. Well, catching knife like this comes with a higher risk. If I want to have a higher probability winning, then on 27Sept11, I can catch it when the %D (blue line) the Smoothed %D (red line) Fast Stochastic crossover and above 20%. Will more confirmation means I will have lower return at around 11%. Note also on 27Sept, KLCI has just rebound with a Bullish Piercing pattern candle stick. Bear in mind, Dialog is resisted by 2.3 resistance line for a few days already showing shooting stars and spinning tops, it will be prudent to take half profit if not all profit.

Fundamentals of Dialog :
Though Dialog has a high PE ratio, I have calculated its intrinsic value is around RM2.80 (Future 10 years earnings using 5 year past growth %). Definitely she has reached RM2.80 in June11. With current chart going downtrend due to overall market is bearish, the chart is telling she will go down further. But I do believe if one is to keep for long term as an investor (5~10 years ?), I believed RM2.80 is within reach again. If one don't own any of her, it would be wise if to collect it around 60% below the intrinsic , at RM1.12 (PE around 14) or RM1.40 (PE around 18).

GLOVE STOCKS

Well, seems like the shooting star is confirmed, see below for the glove index, and an example of supermx, those who have taken profit yesterday closing will gain another few %, but if we were to close position end of today, well if still profit is good ! Well, lets monitor how it pans out, I presume they will retrace to the 20MA, then sideway before deciding whether to continue the downtrend or not. Meaning Supermx has a high probability retracing to 2.6~2.7 (immediate support).

GLOVE STOCKS

Gloves stocks have been on a good run for about 7 trading day, and today 5/Oct show a bearish signal call Shooting Star. In simple words, they are flashing warning " I want to come down" . Definitely in TA terms, tomorrow if close below today price at the lowest range, the bearish signal is confirmed and call for a take profit/cut loss. E.g if Supermx RM3.25 is today low and if tomorrow close below this price, time to take all profit and run, for those just join in today, too bad , got to cut loss, if the signal is confirmed tomorrow.
For simplicity, to gauge the overall glove stocks, I have plot the glove index ( consist of Top glove , Supermx, Harta, Latexx, Adventa & Kossan).

PANTECH

I have a friend who bought Pantech way back early this year 2011 based on some buy call from a FA Sifu.
I wonder how he based his BUY CALL. Hmmm... though Pantech is at a low PE but there is 2 criteria if based on FA should be out of touch as a BUY.
1st : Pantech profit has been dropping since year 2010 and 2011, she peak at 2009.
2nd : Pantech has been trading at max PE of 6 !!! when we are at bull run around end 2009.

When the call in beginning 2011 when the price is around 0.73, Pantech is trading around 6 which means is fully value. Given the 2011 EPS result has drop 6.45, if we were to use PE=6 as a guide, Pantech price should be trading around RM0.39 only. Now, you can see why Pantech has price has been trading lower & lower and as at 30/Sept, she is trading at RM0.42 only, hmmmm, I strongly believe she will reach RM0.39 in the very near future. Lets see, given the bearish market as at now and if she is not able to improve her business, my friend who bought at RM0.73 is going to HOLD for a VERY VERY LONG TIME with the miserable PAPER LOSS in her portfolio.