Follow up on TSH

On 18May, I post on the missing the cut loss point & hope for a fruitful rebound.
"d) What if you miss the boat, and now is too painful to cut, there is still a last chance where she may have a technical rebound back to 2.26 though the rebound may realize or may not realize. So, thats where the HA (Hope Analysis) come in.......;)"

 Finally, today she has reached the 2.26 initial cut loss point. For a Trader who follow his/her strategy strictly, today he should cut loss at 2.26~2.27 and do not "hope" there is further upside to recover his loss. This is due to his initial trading plan has failed and he has to bear the small loss. For a trader, the strategy is to maintain cash always to fight another day by having small loss and having more than 50% success rate of overall position taken.

But for an medium term investor, one would have average down around 2.12 and wait for this rebound to check one can profit from his average price. In this circumstances, being and investor and to let him escape the pain of being actual real money loss while bearing only paper loss. Being a medium term investor, he must have enough money in his portfolio in order for him to average down (the best method is dollar cost averaging).

So, which Method you prefer ???? Again whether one is a pure trader or investor, a well trained MIND, a proper defined and back test METHOD and MONEY MANAGEMENT still applies.

Lesson to be learned from May Momentum play

On 1st May , I wrote the below for TSH momentum play

" Entry would be around 2.44. (maybe can get around 2.42 or maybe 2.44 would be the lowest)
Stop Loss = 2.26
Profit = 2.67 (1st target) 2.81 ( 2nd target).
Target time = 2 ~ 4 week max "

On 16/May, she broke down & straight punch through the support without a pause. She then close at RM2.18 which is RM0.06 below the plan stop loss 2.26.  For such a BEARISH MARKET where index fell more than 20 pts, one would take action as below :

a) During intra-day, if he/she is monitoring the market closely, no need to wait for end of the day, immediately cut,  maybe can cut at 2.24~2.26. At least is still near or according to the plan cut loss.

b) If he/she is not monitoring the market, cut the next day, even the next day is an up day, just cut at 2.18 or just observed a bit if index up, so maybe can cut around 2.21. Remember a cut loss plan is a plan that must follow strictly as a trader though one may like to tweak a bit on the cut loss criteria (see comment c). In this scenario, she keeps going lower & further away from thecut loss target. On 18/May, she is at 2.10, you will lost another RM0.16 per share in addition to the cut loss target (-RM0.18). Imagine if you have 10 lots (10,000 units), you would have lost another RM1600 in just 2 day of hesitation or procrastination.

c) What if the scenario is the index is NOT in such BEARISH situation. If the stock slowly creep lower and broke below the 2.26, say by RM0.02. One can still wait for the next day to see how she closes. If close above the support, then there is a chance there is a whipsaw here or some syndicate purpose flush out the tight stop loss trader. So, is good to hold 1 more day to observe the price direction if the general market does not have a BEAR charging at you.

d) What if you miss the boat, and now is too painful to cut, there is still a last chance where she may have a technical rebound back to 2.26 though the rebound may realize or may not realize. So, thats where the HA (Hope Analysis) come in.......;)

A Momentum Play for May ? TSH would be a good bet

A purely TA play. Weak overall market sentiment but this stock is a strong uptrending stock. As one of my trading comrades name it, TSH is having a perfect chart.

Candle : Inverted hammer sighted
Stochastic : At oversold (would be safer to entry)
Support : Buy at 20MA support (buy low sell high ?)

Entry would be around 2.44. (maybe can get around 2.42 or maybe 2.44 would be the lowest)
Stop Loss = 2.26
Profit = 2.67 (1st target) 2.81 ( 2nd target).
Target time = 2 ~ 4 week max

Lets see hows she react from this.

Just a side note :
My nuffnang advertisement earnings is very low, hope to get more support ;) from all my readers here.