Is this the time to buy?

KLCI still in the downtrend if you ask me. So, is a NO. But for those VERY short term trader, or I say contra players or day trader is still business as usual. For me as a Value investor cum trend trader, is a hands off period and go for holiday. Hmm....maybe I can use this opportunities to sharper my skill as a shorter term trader, but definitely this will come with a price of RISK!.

Last few weeks, I bought SKPetro as quite a few of my "kakis" was mentioning here says her a Index stock and very cheap now. Well, I know that she is in downtrend mode and is not time to go for long term investing , I just go in have a counter trend trade. I went in at 3.16, but she broke my stop loss point of 3.14, thus , I sold her 3.13, in deed she drop further, lowest at 3.04, but after that she rebound back to 3.24. I have no regret, thats what a short term trade is , obey your stop loss. And for those who think is think for investing, she is now drop to 2.82. Wow ! imagine, if I do not obey my stop loss and maybe i hesitate to sell at 3.24, then I'm in a dilemma of trapping at a loss of 10%. Well, if one is to trade and not investing, then the cut loss should be less than 10% as a guide.

Last few days, I was expecting our CI can break the last High around 1858, then we will be on track back to the good old uptrends. See below the chart, our CI has been constraint by the 2 trendlines. Well, for a short term trade, say 2~10 days trade, a good entry point when she rebound around 1806 but the safer point would be 1771 or 1700?. Lets, hope our market would be at 1700, if yes, then the 5 years once big correction or people call it market collapse is formed.

As usual, just remember my disclaimer at the left hand side.

SUNREIT NOV2014 FOLLOW-UP

Is been nearly 2 months since I pen down something.
Is been a bad month for the mid to long term investor as they see their holdings back to their purchase price.

Example : My friend has been holding his Supermx (entry ~2.06) & Pantech (entry ~0.93) since 2013, and as Friday closing , he is at losing/breakeven position after holding for more than 1 year. Supermx close at 2.03 and Pantech at 0.93. Imagine if one is following strictly based on charts to sell Supermx at 2.65 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 28%) and sell Pantech at 1.00 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 7%).

I believe one really need to know when to sell. There is less than 10% of KLCI's  stocks which really gain consistently  throughout very long term holding. Nowadays every 5 or 10 years will be a big downtrend which will reset all your gains. So, I would really advised KLCI stock investor to learn how to let go of his beloved so call very strong FUNDAMENTAL stock and buy back later.

Sunreit is my long term portfolio, some portion I have been holding for >3 years which give me a good 15% annual compounding while the rest enter later did not do a good job in the annual compounding return. During the downtrend, I have to bear the pain on holding the loses nearly for 7 months. Luckily the downtrend only last 7 months. This time, I will do it differently, I will sell at least 75% (or maybe 100%) of my Sunreit holding when she break my weekly trailing stop at 1.47. Then will come back for her when she show signs of changing back to uptrend. Well , lets see this support 1.47 will hold or not.

2014 SUNREIT FOLLOW-UP

I just checked back when was my last post on Malaysia reits. It was about 1 year ago.
see the link , http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2013/10/still-interested-in-malaysia-reits.html
I would always like to review my long term stock every half a year or 1 year.
So, its been I year, that time I was mentioning about her, I think was the best time to
average down. And I did average her and now my average at 1.37.

Come to think of it, I have been buying her since 2011 (around 3 years+) , she is given me consistently around 6% dividend and now with a price gain of 12%,
Say I add all together all together,  my gain is around 30% which is only a 9% annual compounded returns. So, I would rate it as an average performance investment.
I would like to hold some investment that can give at least 15% annual compounded returns.
With this kind of returns, then only my portfolio only can grow fast, to be double up every 5 years , remember the rule 72?)

Okay, I still decided to hold on further as I still feel comfortable holding this Sunreit as my long term portfolio. The other 2 longer term portfolio would be Matrix & Scientex.

As always caveat emptor.

All my writings in this blog are mainly for my own recording & for Educational reading purposes. This weblog is not an advisory service or market prediction for calling a BUY or SELL call.

Happy Birthday !!! My Blog is 3 year old :)

Time really flies, its 828 again....
I had chosen this date 3 years back to start my blog to get some luck , haha, "fatt yee fatt".
I had just check last year market is going down hill. Well, the big cap is rebound now while the small cap is going down hill and is riding down the lower bollinger band. Not a good technical sign.
Well, I'm still holding on to my long term stocks ie. Matrix, Scientx , Sunreit & Kimlun.
I had take profit on all my shorter term stocks (Malton, Kossan, Pantech ) except TAS which I did a bad judgement, the strong gap down signal following the announcement of a not so good quarter result, I had made a decision to wait for a strong rebound but she turns out to be a weak one. I nearly manage to dispose at breakeven point but just short of a few buyer to reach my q. No choice, I got to wait for another rebound. Lets see how it goes.


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8/8 a big down day for KLCI but not for Matrix & Scientx

Today, 8/Aug also call the "Papa" day in China, where there are celebrating fathers day as the 8-8 sounds like "爸爸" .
But to me as a Cantonese, I thought today should be a big bullish day as 8-8 stands for "发发"....means get rich. Well, today totally do the reverse.

Hmm, most of my porfolio going down but these 2 are standing tall. A good boost for a down day.
Maybe Matrix is doing the Reloaded...haha... Neo stop the bullets from shooting him down...
She broke 2 resistance since yesterday and today , 3.13 & 3.23 . Lets see how whether she can broke the next 2 resistance (3.3 & 3.4)  , but I think she can do it if KLCI rebound from her 200MA.

Matrix recently was selected under Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion.

Matrix Concepts

Market Cap $419 MAs of July 2014

Follow (0)

At a Glance

• Industry: Construction
• Founded: 1996
• Country: MALAYSIA
• Sales: $182 M

Forbes Lists

Asia's 200 Best Under A Billion

SCIENTX also did a breakout from all time high 5.95 today. Maybe due to the announcement   :

SCIENTX - OTHERS SCIENTEX BERHAD STRATEGIC ALLIANCE AGREEMENT BETWEEN SCIENTEX PACKAGING FILM SDN BHD, A WHOLLY-OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF SCIENTEX BERHAD AND FUTAMURA CHEMICAL CO., LTD

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MATRIX.............................

Do you like the Matrix movie ? I remember when the movie showed, a few of my friends told me is not nice, but I still went on to watch. I like it very much, I like it due to its complex plot and something new. My friends who told me, they dont like maybe due to they are not able to understand the plot .

Come back to share, when I stumble upon the stock name Matrix, I think of these movie. I was thinking of adding some UOADEV , then I do some research to check on any other better properties counter. RHBinvest recommended Matrix & Tambun instead. Thus I do some FA research and decided to switch to Matrix. I pick Matrix instead of Tambun as the dividend is higher. Around End/April at 4.1 (which is equivalent to 2.70 include dividend & ex bonus issue). Then on Friday, I found the chart is giving signal, I decided to average up at 2.95 using the money that I have cleared from UOADEV. So, now my average price is 2.83.

TTM PE : 9.63

Growth : 12.2

Gearing : net cash

Dividend : 5.8%

ROE : 25.1

The Directors is buying in lately

Fair Value from Analyst

HLIB : 3.74 

RHBInvest : 3.33

Kenanga : 3.2

To me, with these figures above, is a good Value Investment candidate. Thus, I will keep her for a while. 

Today is a good news to me, she gain RM0.10 as of now. What about the chart as of now.  

Next resistance : 3.13 and 3.23

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TAS follow up : Q4 results below expectation !

TAS has released her last q results and is not favourable.
Her earning drop from 10455 mil to 2532 mil , when compare q to q.
If compare this year q to last year q, is also drop from 3080 mil to 2532.
This 4th q EPS is only 1.44 which I dont feel comfortable about.

Is like UOADEV which her latest q EPS has dropped from 6.61 to 3.31 (q on q), so I have let go of my remaining holdings. I believe she is a good company but I still think she need some time to recover from this, thus I will come back for her when her technical have reverse back to uptrend. At the moment, her medium term downtrend has just started.

What about TAS, daily chart, she showed a gap down which is very bearish. Just a few days back, I was mentioning she has not even have any indication on sell signal. Well, market is always like this , is unpredictable, pure TA guys would take any profit on the tables. I would monitor closely on her rebound to take some profit off the table or I might exit her entirely. A price around 1.56~1.58 would be a good exit.
Let see how it goes.

For her weekly chart, I would only rate her as downtrending if she broke the 1.33 support. So, now is still not.  I would not wait till then , as this will wipe off my profit all together, thus this coming 1~2 weeks would be critical for her. If she go down further current price and rebounded from 1.33, then she would not as bearish as I thought. Some fundamentalist would hope she recover her earning in the next q.

TAS follow-up : 19% gain in a month

Just some follow thru, a gain of 19% in a month is a good one. Well, as I say I would still continue to hold on as the the Fair Value would be much higher around 2.20 ? Anyway, I would still check on his up trend closely to signal my exit. At the moment , no signal yet.

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Value Investing Talks : Some pointers

Last month, I went to Maybank Investment talk (May). They invited a speaker from Equitiestracker to give a speech on value investing.

Here are some of his talk for value investing :
1) He said " Begin with the end in mind". Meaning you must set a profit target or when 1 or a few criterias is met, then you should sell the stock. If not having an end in mind, then you may hold the stock indefinitely and don't know when to take profit and may see your profit near your pocket but end up giving back to the market.
2) One should purchase a stock after evaluating the CAPITAL RISK. Meaning we should buy good stock only.
3) One should consider timing risk before pushing the buy button. Meaning buy at the right time, err...this mean buy when is ON Sale. Normally, a stock will be on sale when she is going downtrend. For those who have TA knowledge would be at advantage.

Value investing criteria according to its importance.
1) Operating Cash flow
2) Dividend
3) Consistent Net profit

There are 6 categories of stocks.
1) Investment grade stock (consistent fulfill all the 3 criteria in 10 years, boring, slow moving stocks).
2) Emerging grade stock (these are high growth stock)
3) Cyclical stock (depends on some external factors)
4) Turnaround stock (these stocks just started to go into profit zone, but to me these one will be higher risk)
5) Sunset/ Failing stock (profit margin deteriorating hugely, normally technology stock has this tendency).
6) venture/Speculative stock (these stocks is not in fund manager portfolios and usually are "goreng" stocks)

His strategy is buy some, if drop lower, buy some more, drop further , buy some more, then when turnaround, sell some, sell some more, then sell further.


He has mentioned he is monitoring  GAB, Airasia & AirasiaX (this one is higher risk, emerging stock).
I can't remember the actual date I went to the talk, should be around 17/May. Then these stock is around (13.86, 2.26, 0.755). Let review this in a year if I still remember .

For Maybank Investment themselves, they are promoting their Ezyinvest program. Some sort of unit trust but no annual commision fees and using "Dollar cost averaging" strategy. Suggested we keep for 4 to 8 years, the gain will be around 70%. Imagine one is to put their money in the FD, after 8 years, we would only gain 27%. This is to help newbies to invest and using the safest strategy. One can select from their 8 recommended stocks.
1) Ambank
2) digi
3) TM
4) TimeCom
5) GenM
6) Gamuda
7) Maybank
8) DRBHicom

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Value Invest :TAS

I bought some last week at 1.37 when she start to move up from her lower band . Actually,l intend to catch her at the lowest band at 1.33, but due to keep delaying my q & thought there is much time before she move. So, I just manage to catch on the day she moves. I bought into her based on my friend ( a remisier) recommend her to me. Upon check, her FA seems good and her chart is squeezing, I decide to enter into her. No time to put chart , later will put up when I have the time.

UOADEV update

Yesterday, I sold my UOADEV at 2.20. I'm still holding half of it. My take profit point was any thing drops below my Trend line WMA20 at 2.10. Im supposed to let go immediately if I were to follow my initially rule. I changed a bit and decided to take profit when she rebounded back to its  1st resistant at 2.20 . Technically , she did a come back and did not break her weekly uptrend.  I decided to let half go due to her latest q results was droppings by half compare to last q.

20% profit on Malton in 3 weeks

As per blog up on 13/Apr, I went back into Malton at 0.9325 on 28/Mar.
Today she has gone up about 20% from my cost price.
I have sold half at RM1 and let the rest ride till today. This 2nd portion I will follow mid term trend trading.
Lets see I can get the most out from her as some say her fair value is around 1.5~1.80. Her last EPS is 8.72
If she can maintain this EPS value for another 3 quarter, then her yearly EPS will be around 34. Giving some discount for small cap, if we target her PE to be 7, then she will at least worth 2.38.
So, lets see whether her fundamental will rock or not.

April Momentum Play 2 : Cuscapi

Enter into her at 0.415 using bollinger breakout strategy.
Let see whether she is strong enough to break her 1st resistance at 0.45 to reach 0.50.
If the momentum is strong, she will reach her 1st resistance by tomorrow.

Update on Pantech & Malton Apr2014

I have been keeping some Pantech under my  Portfolio 2 (VaIue Invest with Trend trading - VITT).  

She did went against the initial trend and went down mid term downtrend for a few months. I update on Jan2014 http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan2014-pantech.html. Finally, she has break above the downtrend and charge towards the short term uptrend. If she can broke the 1.04 resistance, then the medium term uptrend will be confirmed.

I went into Malton again at 0.9325 averagely. I bought using breakout strategy but too bad, she's not breaking through. Now consolidating towards the 20MA, lets see whether there will be a strong rebound to bring her breaking the 0.985/0.99 resistance to reach the psychological resistance RM1.00. Fundamentally she quite good, having all those developments in Klang valleys.

Lets see how both of them goes.

Update on Malton & some comment on Orna

Today I sold my Malton at 0.92 as per my trading plan, sell at 1st resistance using my MP strategy (http://www.reiccs.blogspot.com/2013/10/3-strategies-separated-into-3-portfolio.html)
As I mention earlier I trade on Malton only, not invest. If she were to fly higher, I should not regret as I has plan my trade and I should abide to it, afterall is a profitable trade.

Just some comment on Orna, as the market is very uncertain and I did not study much into the Orna Fundamentals, I set up a very short term trading plan for my Portfolio 3 (Momentum Play- MP)
 I mention in my last post I bought at 1.14 and sold at 1.25. This is a good trade as Orna as at today has 1.12 drop back to below my purchase price.

I add some position in UOADEV at RM2.02 using my Portfolio 2 (VaIue Invest with Trend trading - VITT). Lets see how it goes, she has broken into short term uptrend, and I'm watching closely as she would break the 200MA around RM2.15 to be enter into a Medium Term uptrend. Fundamentally all property stocks' price is too tempting to purchase as they are selling at PE around 7.

Update on Orna & new stock to watch

Last few weeks, I was wondering will I be stopping blogging.
My workload has been affecting my stock analysing focus, thus really didnt purchase anything much lately. Thus I have nothing much to blog. Sometimes, I have something on mind to pen down something, end up to lazy to ON my laptop.
So, lately I decided to push myself to trade something, afterall, RHBINVEST can do all the trading programming strategy at night and let the trade done by itself with all my conditional instructions.
And I would like to make my blog more active again and my loyal fans, pls help to to spread some words out on my blog and also I hope to earn something from my nuffnang, need everyone support :)

Orna.
I sold my Orna at 1.25/1.27 today. Earning about 10% for a 2 day trade.
A good one if I would to judge myself.

Malton
Last trade, I cut loss at 0.895 on 21/Nov/2013.
Here I am again, enter into her at 0.870. I always have this feeling, either I cut loss or take profit, I wanted to re-enter with a lower price. Cant seems to get this persistence out from me. Anyway, I did enter at a lower price than I cut loss last year.
As the market has not been having a very meaning correction in the recent months, I would rather having short trade than longer ones. So, my Profit would be at 0.92. A short one indeed, if the strategy turns out right, a 6% gain in this trade. Let see how it pans out.

MPHBCAP
I did try to enter into her but did able to get in at 1.86, thus didnt have any.

M-reits recovery on track ! Need a few more push for full recovery.

If one is following the REITS or have been holding on to some REITS, you can see they are slowly recovering but we are still not out of the woods yets. I would say if the REITS broke the 200MA line convincingly, then we would consider have change the mid term downtrend to sideway or uptrends ?
Let see in the next few weeks. Btw, or all the REITS, I would be focusing on SUNREITS and CMMT only.

Recent stock I trade (MP strategy)

Last month, either I was too busy or too lazy to pen something here. Anyway, I didnt trade much, so nothing much to write.Normally, I would like to put some charts for each of my post , these is time consuming, thus I'd skip some posting even I had intended to write something. So, I decided to put a short post in coming future for what stock I'm aiming at or had just purchase.

Last month, just trade MPHBCAP, just a short trade. Initially plan to take profit at 1.92 but due to some greediness, change my selling q to 1.98, end up need to take profit at lower target at 1.86.

Yesterday, I plan out 2 short trade, intended to have short trade as normally overall market would not be good after all the company results is out. I selected Orna (E=1.15, P=1.27 or 1.37) and Coastal (E=4.37, P=4.61 or 4.77). I'd got into Orna at 1.14 while not manage to enter any Coastal as she just jump up and fly all the way to 4.65. A good catch for Orna also as she closed at 1.21. I using the RHBInvest program to set once she touch 1.15, meaning my TA signal is confirm and automatically the program enter my queue at 1.14. Luckily the some buying/selling is there for me to catch at 1.14, if not, it will same as Coastal, a good trade plan but not able to execute.

Jan2014 Pantech

I have a friend who is accumulating Pantech based on fundamental and he target at least 50% profit before letting go. He bought it around RM0.945 average. Pantech fly up to 1.1~ 1.14 three times. Then another friend of mine just taken profit around 1.1. If he would have sold at 1.1 (many analyst report mentioned FV around 1.10), he would have profit 16.4% x 3 = 49.2% . So, before this breakdown, he would have reach near to his 50% target.

But now she has broken down and close at 0.93. I'm wondering is a buy and hold strategy really works based on fundamentals or one who play fundamental strategy should have taken some profit first after the share run up 16.7% (Based on Fibonacci 1st resistance). Well, this really makes me ponder further how our PEGGY blogger make 50+% profit just using buy and hold strategy top up with dollar cost averaging. Hmmm....PEGGY did also have Pantech in her portfolio. Or I would say he really have some luck during her stock selection where quite a few stocks rose 100% and above. Another thing is Patience that she really have. Thumbs up to him.

At this price of RM0.93, Pantech is trading at PE 9.7 (I just took this data from KLSE Screener Apps). If I were to see her latest Q3 EPS =2.24 and if this were to continue for another 3 quarter without much changes, then with she would deem worth only around 1.07 for a PE=12 (best PE ratio for the last 5 years) , thus she is still not consider fully value.  But based on the breakdown chart , bearish I would say, broke 2 support at 1 go, she may end up at RM0.90 or may just test the RM0.86 again. Chartwise she is at medium term downtrend and may need to catalyst for her to do a good uptrend reversal. But again, those who interested to catch knife may get some around RM0.90 or RM0.86 to do a quick snipe. Also one who have some position lock, can do some dollar cost averaging if he/she have the patience to hold at least for another quarter to check on her revenue will be increased ?

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HAPPY NEW YEAR ! WELCOME 2014

Time flies ! Another year just pass by like this.
Time for me to review back how I did in all my investment in year 2013.
Hmmm....lately been busy with work, travelling, yet to do any of this.
Well, I try to find some time on this.

Btw, I'm still holding on to my CMSB, initially want to write something on my decision on why I hold on and breakdown my analysis in detail. Again time doesnt allow. Lets see I can find some time later.

HAPPY NEW YEAR !
MAY THIS NEW YEAR WILL BE ANOTHER PROFITABLE AND EXCITING YEAR !!!