TAS follow up : Q4 results below expectation !

TAS has released her last q results and is not favourable.
Her earning drop from 10455 mil to 2532 mil , when compare q to q.
If compare this year q to last year q, is also drop from 3080 mil to 2532.
This 4th q EPS is only 1.44 which I dont feel comfortable about.

Is like UOADEV which her latest q EPS has dropped from 6.61 to 3.31 (q on q), so I have let go of my remaining holdings. I believe she is a good company but I still think she need some time to recover from this, thus I will come back for her when her technical have reverse back to uptrend. At the moment, her medium term downtrend has just started.

What about TAS, daily chart, she showed a gap down which is very bearish. Just a few days back, I was mentioning she has not even have any indication on sell signal. Well, market is always like this , is unpredictable, pure TA guys would take any profit on the tables. I would monitor closely on her rebound to take some profit off the table or I might exit her entirely. A price around 1.56~1.58 would be a good exit.
Let see how it goes.

For her weekly chart, I would only rate her as downtrending if she broke the 1.33 support. So, now is still not.  I would not wait till then , as this will wipe off my profit all together, thus this coming 1~2 weeks would be critical for her. If she go down further current price and rebounded from 1.33, then she would not as bearish as I thought. Some fundamentalist would hope she recover her earning in the next q.

UOADEV update

Yesterday, I sold my UOADEV at 2.20. I'm still holding half of it. My take profit point was any thing drops below my Trend line WMA20 at 2.10. Im supposed to let go immediately if I were to follow my initially rule. I changed a bit and decided to take profit when she rebounded back to its  1st resistant at 2.20 . Technically , she did a come back and did not break her weekly uptrend.  I decided to let half go due to her latest q results was droppings by half compare to last q.

Update on Malton & some comment on Orna

Today I sold my Malton at 0.92 as per my trading plan, sell at 1st resistance using my MP strategy (http://www.reiccs.blogspot.com/2013/10/3-strategies-separated-into-3-portfolio.html)
As I mention earlier I trade on Malton only, not invest. If she were to fly higher, I should not regret as I has plan my trade and I should abide to it, afterall is a profitable trade.

Just some comment on Orna, as the market is very uncertain and I did not study much into the Orna Fundamentals, I set up a very short term trading plan for my Portfolio 3 (Momentum Play- MP)
 I mention in my last post I bought at 1.14 and sold at 1.25. This is a good trade as Orna as at today has 1.12 drop back to below my purchase price.

I add some position in UOADEV at RM2.02 using my Portfolio 2 (VaIue Invest with Trend trading - VITT). Lets see how it goes, she has broken into short term uptrend, and I'm watching closely as she would break the 200MA around RM2.15 to be enter into a Medium Term uptrend. Fundamentally all property stocks' price is too tempting to purchase as they are selling at PE around 7.

UOADEV - 2 days reach Profit target (>5.7%)

On 7Aug, after the buy signal, I have set up a trade plan (  E = 1.76, S=1.64, P1 = 1.84 and P2 = 1.98.) This trade is a fast one, reach my 1st Profit target in 2 days, > 5.7%.

Again, one may hope she will reached her 2nd resistance ( 2nd Profit target) with a gain of 13.5%. 

For Aggressive short term trader, normally one will target one stock will break the 1st one and reach her 2nd classical resistance. Well, time will tell.

Another Momentum Play : UOADEV

Recently, she had given a good dividend of 10sen. a
For TA wise, there is a MACD buy signal. So, E = 1.76, S=1.64, P1 = 1.84 and P2 = 1.98.
Many analyst upgrading these stock fair value.
Jupiter : 1.88
CIMB : 2.18
Kenanga : 1.84

April12 Momentum Play : UOADEV

I've been observing the UOADEV recently and realised that she has just breakout from a symmetrical triangle and may have a chance of climbing the bollinger band. Well, at this price RM1.54, for those not particular on a few sen, it would be a good entry point.

TA positive view
1) Breakout of symmetrical triangle
2) MACD line bullish crossover and cross zero line recently
3) Volume is picking up
4) Daily & Weekly MACD histogram at 2G (bullish).

TA negative view
1) Stochastic at overbought level
2) Red candle today
3) General market sentiment weak & Properties index is on downtrend

For aggressive trader, one can enter tomorrow at 1.54. For conservative trader, one can enter when stochastic return to oversold level (maybe around 1.51). Stop loss should be 1.49 (should not hesitate as the overall market is quite weak ). Remember the saying "Sell in May & Go away".

Happy trading. As always caveat emptor.

BINGO ! UOADEV & SUPERMX

Yesterday momentum stock pick was a " STRIKE" (as is in bowling). UOADEV leap with a single bound of 12.58%. Well, in bowling getting a strike for those amateur is part skill , part luck. As bowling is one of my hobby, I'm consider still amateur though I did got a champion in one of my company tournaments. Time have pass so fast that I've not touch the ball for a few years already. In trading, as I'm considered a trained/graduate Technical Analysis guy but recently I'm venturing into Fundamentals (just been doing study lately), in such a harsh environment of downtrend, just by picking purely using TA has only 60% success probability rate and the 40% need the LUCK side (hmmm, I believe Feng Shui can help boost up some of the luck side). Remember the Profit target 1.77~1.80 ? Greed must be controlled !!! Given such regional condition, I really believe, the last push really very much depends on Dow performs tonight.

Actually, yesterday I wanted to post another stock pick together with UOADEV, but I decided not to, as sleeping is more important to me. She is SUPERMX, so, actually I did get a "DOUBLE". Hmmm, Entry should be 2.97, Cut loss 2.80 and Profit tgt 3.4 (for conservative)or 3.60.  If the syndicate decide to play for a few day, 3.70 would be possible. Just do a little study, you will realise all glove goes up today, lets see how many days they are playing this time. 

See the index glove that I create (consist of Top Glove, Harta, Supermx, Latexx, Kossan, Adventa), the graph is moves in tandem with supermx, meaning glove stocks are in play .

Stock Pick-Momentum Play

Starting from today, I will once a while select some stocks and categorised them either as Momentum Play (short term) or Value Invest (long term). Today I pick UOADEV as tomorrow momentum play.
Entry only if reached at 1.56, Cut loss if closes below 1.41, target profit 1.77~1.80. Another criteria is Dow & our CI must at least slight positive. Let see this trade is ON tomorrow or not.

UOADEV

Read more: UOA Dev falls on KL listing debut http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/20110608084433/Article/#ixzz1WzQi8JEt

REI : 

Thats the news when she was listed, at that time the overall market sentiment is so so, I was being offered to join in to subscribe the IPO. But I found nowadays buying IPO is worst than playing Banker/Player (Baccarat) in Genting casino if I do not intend to become a long term investor. The probability of going down is 67% which is lower that playing Baccarat. And now she has fallen more than 45% from her IPO price , is she attractive ? I would say a counter trend trading is possible but the odds is still low.

So, one will ask should I cut loss now and buy back when she becomes lower ? Hmm, see the oval shadowed area, that's where one should cut loss (around 2.04) when she started to breakdown from her initial support (2.04) created around July11. And if he/she has purchase her during the IPO , she will have actual loss of around 45%, OUCHH !!! that too MUCH PAIN to bear. If really cut and she does not goes down anymore, then suddenly she take off from this area and reach back RM2 ? that will be heart attack...

Anyway, if you look in fundamental point of view, she still is a strong company.

Now, she has started to rebound and heading toward 1.61 (immediate resistance) and 1.80 (2nd resistance). Given that Dow Jones drop 253 pts last Friday but our KLCI indicators is showing a rebound is on the cards. She will have a hard time reaching there if our CI is not rebounding. Lets see how it goes.

I remember attending a talk by a stock trading system trainer, he mentioned when an IPO drops to a very low point, there will be a time where she is ripe to rebound (significantly in a V shape !). We can catch this to earn some decent profit, and I will be on the look up for this. One example is Handal shown below :