Recent stock I trade (MP strategy)

Last month, either I was too busy or too lazy to pen something here. Anyway, I didnt trade much, so nothing much to write.Normally, I would like to put some charts for each of my post , these is time consuming, thus I'd skip some posting even I had intended to write something. So, I decided to put a short post in coming future for what stock I'm aiming at or had just purchase.

Last month, just trade MPHBCAP, just a short trade. Initially plan to take profit at 1.92 but due to some greediness, change my selling q to 1.98, end up need to take profit at lower target at 1.86.

Yesterday, I plan out 2 short trade, intended to have short trade as normally overall market would not be good after all the company results is out. I selected Orna (E=1.15, P=1.27 or 1.37) and Coastal (E=4.37, P=4.61 or 4.77). I'd got into Orna at 1.14 while not manage to enter any Coastal as she just jump up and fly all the way to 4.65. A good catch for Orna also as she closed at 1.21. I using the RHBInvest program to set once she touch 1.15, meaning my TA signal is confirm and automatically the program enter my queue at 1.14. Luckily the some buying/selling is there for me to catch at 1.14, if not, it will same as Coastal, a good trade plan but not able to execute.

Limit down cases study : Coastal

I pick Coastal to follow-up the following trading day behaviour after the abnormal gap down on the Friday 21/June/2013. Indeed, as I predicted she will gap up till Limit Up, I did queue at 1.93, but did get any, I try to buy at 1.94 but the system does not allow me to, but don't know why later some trades can be down at 1.94. The next day 25/June, due to some hesitation to chase further as the market crashes badly on Monday.
If I were to queue at 1.94, again I cant get any, as she gap up to 1.98 before pressure back to 1.93 (2 sen above yesterday closing).

Anyway, she continue her climb and today she reaches back the Thursday (20/Jun/13) closing price, 2.10. So, now everything back to normal. Here you can see a 30% limit down, needs a 30% limit up with 2 more consecutive up day before she can recover to her original prices. Thats mathematics, down is faster than up.

Btw, RHB just upgrade her Fair Value to RM3.00. The reason being given by them is as follow

"The Edge Financial Daily reported today that Coastal Contracts (COCO) is acquiring its first jack-up drilling rig for USD200m (MYR641m). Assuming an 80:20 debt-to-equity ratio, COCO’s balance sheet will be leveraged up to some 0.46x net gearing based on its latest quarterly numbers. Given the change in the company’s earnings dynamics, we upgrade the stock to a BUY from NEUTRAL, as we raise the PE ratio from 8x to 10x. Our FV is thereby nudged up to MYR3.00 from MYR2.33.
The article mentioned that COCO will only take delivery of the jack-up rig in 2H14 (likely end-3Q14). "


Rei comment :

I got the meaning from the article is the recurring income will only starts improving around 3Q14 but now is only 2Q13, hmmmm...so she "may" only start to climb towards her targeted price around Mid/2014 ???

Anyway, I'm putting a more conservative approach, my intrinsic calculation (reduce from my last blog up due to her dwindling quarterly earnings) is around RM2.21.


As always caveat emptor.
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21May2013 What a day ! 6 Limit Down & 2 Limit Up !

Well, I didnt see this before, imagine during the last 10 minutes, a huge fund throw in substantial amount of shares to 6 good FA stocks and cause them limit down or near limit down. This is really worth to record down in my blog and I really witness one of them moving drastically (Coastal).

DOWN !!!
Coastal : Close at 1.48, -RM0.62 send (-29.5%)
CBIP :  Close at 1.93, -RM0.82 (-29.8%)
TDM : Close at 2.90, -RM 1.24 (-30%)
BKawan : Close at 13.46 , -RM5.76 (-30%)
HSPlant : Close at 1.89, -RM0.81 (-30%)
BJToto : Close at 3.20, -RM1.01 (-24%)

UP !!!
JCY : Close at 0.90, +RM0.24 (+36.4%)
Star : Close at 3.71, +RM0.85 (+29.7%)

I would say those who queue a few bid low during 4.44pm for the above Limit Down counter, suddenly able get at a very cheap price and gain heavily on monday, like striking lottery. I would believe that these counters would go back at least near to her 21May 4.44 pm prices .

On the other hand, if you were queueing at the seller price at 4.44 pm, you already immediately strike a 30% lottery and got to sold at the limit up price. Let say, you were queueing JCY to sell at RM0,70, suddenly you get another RM0.20 free due to the 5 minutes matching to close at RM0.90. What a gain !!!

Coastal ( I was lucky to view this irratic movements)
At 4.44pm, she was still trading at buyer 2.16, seller 2.17, and last done at 2.17, suddenly during 4.45pm to 4.50pm, the matching was vigorous, price fluctuating on the matching price, she was going to match at 1.47, I able to queue some at 1.47, but last minute, she changes to 1.48, and I miss the queue, really luck is not on my side. Imagine 2.17 to 1.48, all in all she was hammer down RM0.69 in that 5 minutes time. A 2 year all time low. Lets see all 6 of them will be back to their rightful price in Monday.

And this is what The Stars news commented.

Bursa: Trades ‘valid and genuine’

By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The seemingly unusual market activity that saw sharp price gyrations in several stocks in the final 10 minutes of trading yesterday was valid and genuine, according to Bursa Malaysia.

Six counters from mid-caps to big ones, namely, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Batu Kawan Bhd, TDM Bhd, CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (CBIP), Coastal Contracts Bhd and Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd, hit limit-down, or a 30% plunge, with a combined trade of RM43.1mil in that short time window during pre-close.

While the trading pattern may seem like an “error in trading” could have taken place, a Bursa Malaysia representative when contacted byStarBizWeek clarified: “With regards to the eight stocks which hit their limits-up (two) and down (six), Bursa Malaysia has investigated the matter and has confirmed with the broker that the basket order, which was from their institutional client, was valid and genuine.”

In yesterday's trade, Hap Seng shed 81 sen to RM1.89, Batu Kawan lost RM5.76 to RM13.46, TDM declined RM1.24 to RM2.90, CBIP decreased 82 sen to RM1.93, Coastal Contracts was down 62 sen to RM1.48, andBerjaya Sports Toto fell RM1.01 to RM3.20.

At the other end of the spectrum, JCY International Bhd gained 24 sen, or 36%, to 90 sen and Star Publications (M) Bhd shot up 85 sen, or 29%, to RM3.71.

In the broader market, the FBM KLCI shed 6.49 points, or 0.37%, to 1,755.85 points, with 306 gainers, 512 losers, and 267 counters unchanged.

Over 2.05 billion shares valued at RM3.78bil were traded.

VI with TA ?: Coastal May2012 followup

Finally Coastal has rebound from her down trending and now there is a TA buy signal in the making. See the purple oval shadow ? Would it be a history repeat ? A close above 50MA (above 2.11) would signal a buy. Again for those hardcore investor, its time to accumulate againor average down for those who got in a bit too high (with careful money management). Lets see this strong FA stock able to climb up and go against the overall weak market sentiment.
Time will tell.
As always caveat emptor.

VI -Coastal Mar12 followup

On 19Feb, I did put up a post on Momentum Play for Coastal, well this MP play has failed and the stop at 2.32 has been broken on 28/3 (2.28). As on 24/Mar, she did another breakdown & close at 2.16. Things getting interesting for Value Invest as she has fallen for about 20% from the recent peak of 2.70. So, is time to accumulate for those are very into Fundamental Play. Buy some around 2.10, if fall further to 2.0, accumulate some more but always remember to maintain cash to share ratio at below 30% since the general market is quite weak.

What about the TA landscape, hmmmmm....she has a strong support around 2.10 (200MA) and another horizontal support at 2.05. Well, if the 1st support didnt do her job, then things would not be so optimistic.
Since I'm into hybrid play, I would monitor closely around these 2 level of support to check on any rebound for a re-enter.

Lets see how see performs in the next few weeks.

Value Invest & MP signal-Coastal

Well, I have a good 35% profit from her. But I still not yet have enough from her as her intrinsic value should be around RM4.65. For my new readers, you can read through all the post of Coastal that I've blogged under the Labels categories.

Well, on 17/Feb she just showed a TA buy signal, E will be around RM2.33~2.41 (though one may not able to get at RM2.33). Stop will be 2.32 & P will be 2.69~2.79. Actually, I'm expecting her to retrace to RM2.19 before charging further up, but the TA signal just flash, so let see this signal is a strong one or not,  just going in to long some but with small position as I believe this one would need a fast in fast out before the whole FBMKLCI and FBMSCAP come crashing down for longer period to be so call a decent correction before the last charge up till our Election.

Well, lets see how this Momentum play (MP) trade goes my view or against it. For purely fundamental, definitely she is still can be hold as she still show annual results.

Coastal, time to take the 35% Profit ?

Well, those who bought around 1.9+ is gaining a whopping 35% profit by now (less than 4 months wait since I first mentioned about her) , well I 'm clearing my position on Friday 10/Feb as the there is confirmation for the shooting star (9/Feb) which I think is time for some correction. Note that I purchase Coastal as a Value Invest stock, she has yet to climb to her intrinsic value around RM4.65. If one has a lot of quantity, then she/he may keep some in case TA shows a false signal, as TA is not 100% right. Who knows, Coastal may jump up again on Monday. But those who follow TA, would like to follow the signal to take profit and wait for her to retrace and stabilised, maybe around 2.4 or 2.19. That time, we can load back. Will continue monitor her closely to catch for another run.

Value Invest - HSL gaining momentum !!!

Refer to my posting here, http://www.reiccs.blogspot.com/2012/01/value-invest-hsl.html, I mentioned the 'W' reversal has started , indeed she did a leap to breakout from her last resistance to complete the W formation. At this level, I'm gaining paper profit of 24% which my average purchase price is 1.32. Next, her next target is 1.61 and 1.74 which I think is possible. Whether she will be back to her last her high of 1.92 would really depends on the overall KLCI market direction. Anyway, I have sold some of my position at 1.51 to secure some money back into my pocket. Remember always sold on rally. Then let the rest run with a trailing stop loss. See if HSL will perform like another Coastal (Later when I decided to clear my remaining position in Coastal, I will post it up).

If you see my purchases on Coastal & HSL, indeed I bought it when low (near bottom though may not be the lowest point, remember no one in the world can calculate the lowest trough or the highest peak to buy & sell). Buying Value stocks need patience (indeed I told about HSL being selling at 33% discount against my calculated intrinsic value of 1.88 while Coastal selling at 40% discount when I initiate my purchases)

Value Invest : Coastal followup 31Jan2012

Remember I follow up about her on 19/Jan/2012, http://reiccs.blogspot.com/search/label/COASTAL , there is FA & TA signal ? The signal need 12 days to really turn true.
So, is her time to perform as so many other stocks have a good run, and she really burst up 11% in a day..... I closed half of my position and remain half for further ride, lets see she can develop into an medium/long term UPTREND or just a mere spike. I believe the former will be a good bet.

Value Invest : Coastal followup Jan2012

Well, the last post I mention about her is that I'm expecting her to climb the uptrend channel but she failed to do that. 

And now..........


FA ,
Today there is a FEW announcements as below,
COASTAL has received a notification dated 19 January 2012 from Mr/Ms xxx, a "major shareholder" of the Company, of his/ her intention to deal in the Company's securities during the closed period pending the announcement of the Company's fourth quarterly financial report for the period ended 31 December 2011.
So, is there something brewing coming which is favourable to Coastal price going up ???

TA wise, 
Hmmm....today she did a BREAKOUT her RM2 psychological/classical resistance with a high volume. So, I'm expecting her to climb at least till RM2.11 & the RM2.19 would be quite possible.

Value Invest : Coastal followup Nov2011

Based on my previous recommendation http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/value-invest-coastal-5071.html as a value invest stock rated 5 star = Accumulate.  I did accumulate some solely base on FA at a discount from intrinsic value.

On 16/Nov, Alwayswin111 informed me, he has also bought into Coastal and taken profit at 2.00.
I also taken partial profit around this price. Then I decided to put in some TA touch by buying back around the blue shadow area (1.80~1.82). Well, I did not manage to get and she has rebounded, luckily I still hold on to some.

Considering our KLCI dropping 13 pts in the morning, while she only drops 1 sen and fight back to positive 4.3% when CI closes only -4.8pt, this may be sending out a signal she going to challenge her previous high (2.04) again. Well, lets see this time she manage to climb till the upper line of the channel (2.08~2.09) which coincide with 100MA line also. I will offload some more, before loading her back around the lower line of the channel. After all, I would like the keep this channel for a longer period as Value Investment.

Value Invest - COASTAL (5071)

After studying her for some time on her fundamental strengths and with a confirmation from my friend (who has a firm wealth building strategy using value investment), I decided to post her out as she has started to show some signal technically.

Fundamentally (Rate : 5 star !!!)
This is what I want to stress , she is a real GEM in terms of value investing.
Today closing price = 1.94 
Current PE ratio = 4.67  (based on last year EPS)
TTM PE ratio =4.12
2010 ROE = 33.34%
Dividend Yield ~ 3.4%
Intrinsic value = 4.65 (based on a very conservative & discounted calculation).

Since now she is at 1.94, which is at 41% of her intrinsic, she is a real bargain and gem.

Note : OSK rated Fair Value = 3.38

Technically, 

Stochastic has already given buy signal on 25/Oct but vol was not convincing then.
Today, MACD has flash a buy signal coming in (tomorrow confirm ?).
TA strategy : Breakout play
Entry =1.98  , Cut loss if break below 1.79, Profit target = 2.19.