Wednesday 28 December 2011

Momentum Play - BIMB followup

Based on my trading plan of profit tgt at 2.07~2.09
http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/12/momentum-play-bimb.html ),
BIMB has achieved the target yesterday.
So, one should take all profit, if not,at least half profit for those aggressive trader.
For the remaining position, lets see how she able to hang on to the Bollinger Band.
Note, MACD indicator is showing red and Stoc %K is going down from overbought level.
So, if tomorrow close below 2.02 or the candle drop out from the band,
one would also close the remaining position.


Momentum play- Latexx followup

Yesterday did a breakout but with very low volume, so no enter. Today, she drop back into the triangle. Lets monitor these few days to see whether triangle formation will be nullified.


Sunday 25 December 2011

Momentum Play - Latexx

Well, Latexx is doing a symmetrical triangle,  if Tuesday push up with high volume, then there will be a breakout from the triangle with a Profit target 2.27. Lets see, how she react on Tuesday morning, a climb above 1.96 with high volume would be a strong signal there will be a breakout. Once enter, if she closes below 1.94, then, then I would consider the breakout not successful. Hmm...lets see the trade is on or not on 27/Dec.



FA point of view, the below charts says it all ;) , beside Latexx, as blogged by me under my Value Invest list, Coastal is also in the list. The other company worth mentioning is HSL (Hock Seng Lee), I keep to write her up till later as the Technical show some signal.

Latexx among 14 Malaysian firms on Forbes Asia's 'Best Under a Billion' list

Malaysian firms on Forbes Asia’s Best Under a Billion list 2011
Sales (US$ mil)
Net Income
(US$ mil)
Market Value
(US$ mil)
Coastal Contracts
219
65
331
EA Holdings
7
1
16
Hartalega Holdings
243
63
677
HELP international
34
6
100
Hirotako Holdings
93
12
108
Hock Seng Lee
158
24
285
KKB Engineering
87
25
148
Latexx Partners
161
21
125
Masterskill Education
102
33
235
Mudajaya Group
282
70
506
MyE.G. Services
19
6
128
Top Glove
663
78
1025
Vitrox
28
10
92
Xidelang Holdings
151
25
44



Saturday 24 December 2011

Greetings

I would like wish everyone here a Merry Xmas & Happy New Year.
Next Saturday, I would like to do a summary on my quarterly summary on all my Value Invest & Momentum play  to make a check on  how long of my each trade/investment, the profit/loss % to let me realise my success rate for the pass 3 months.

Sunday 18 December 2011

Momentum Play-BIMB

Well, another Momentum Play (MP)  for me tomorrow.
Hmm, based on technical only
1) MACD bullish crossover.
2) Stochastic bullish crossover.
3) Volume still high and slightly increase back from Thursday (15/Dec)
4) Price climb back above 200MA
5) RiskReward ratio > 1

Tgt Entry = 1.94~1.97
Cut Loss < 1.83
Tgt Profit = 2.07~2.09

Well, lets see this trade is better than Ivory and faster than Kfima. :)



Monday 12 December 2011

Ivory Momentum Play Dec11 Followup


As per my previous post for momentum play, as at today, she still manage to rebound from my Stop Loss Level at 0.94, thus I still can hold on to this stock to see whether this trade will bring me a profit or not.

Though Ivory did show a Inverted Hammer today & Stochastic at oversold and she seems to start to show some sign of rebound, I'm expecting she will start her upward movement tomorrow. But as of my writing now,  Europe & US market is in very RED, so the upward movement may have to wait :(

If the scenario become worst, for Momentum Play, discipline is important, once she close below 0.94, I have to cut her off as per my initial trading plan.

Tuesday 6 December 2011

KFIMA follow#3

Below is my past analyses/comment on KFIMA (for Value Invest),

24/Oct
FA (Fundamental Analysis)
I have go thru her 2002~2011 EPS growth. Very attractive in the last 5 years. Based on the growth & earnings, she at least worth >1.83 (her recent peak). Cashflow is good. I'm in the middle of checking her intrinsic value (= her real worth if you treat yourself a long term investor), will blog out her worth later.
At 1.62 today, her PE ratio =6 .

25/Oct
Finally calculated out her intrinsic value (Fair value for some may use), she worth about 1.86 after taking into consideration she is a small cap & also assuming her EPS growth will be consistent or similar to these recent few years. I would rate her as a HOLD for FA point of view. Note : My rating for Accumulate for FA stocks is those with huge discount >30~50%% from her intrinsic value.


21/Nov
2 ways of trading using TA,

1) if one using TA based on break out strategy, one would have entered on 27/Oct at 1.65 during closing but considering the non attractive risk reward ratio , he may hesistated to entered. If he were to enter, he may profited at 1.69 (gaining only 2.4%), as he would not wait further as the psychology overwhelms him during 28/Oct~10/Nov where KFIMA drops to 1.60.

or

2) using TA based on "Buy at Support" Strategy (back-up by MACD >0), one would have entered between 2~10/Nov around 1.60~1.61 and using FA (intrinsic value around 1.86) as psychological strength to counter the FEAR . Given such overall market bearish sentiment, one may decide not to wait till 1.83 (3rd resistance or near intrinsic value), he should take profit at 1.75 (gaining 9%).

22/Nov (inside comment post)



Yes, KFIMA is facing resistance at 1.75.
Btw, what software charting you use ? After being adjusted for dividend ex 29/Sept on the chart, the gap you saw on 5/Aug should be 1.70~1.72 which is filled yesterday. So, I would see if she broke the resistance at 1.75, the next immediate resistance is 1.83.
Anyway, in these few days, she may retrace but I'm expected support at 1.68 & 1.64 would be a good one before she continue her short term uptrend (provided index do not tank badly)


And on 6/Dec, today (slightly after 1+ month),
Indeed from 23~25/Nov, 1.68 provided a strong support & she finally have reached her 1.86 intrinsic value. 
Moral of the story : 
If we were to based on TA to in out, we would not gain the whole 26 cents (16% gain) and mostly would be contributed to the brokerage.
But given the recent market volatility, can one stomach the up down price movement ? Again, following one trading plan initially before any long position should not have any regret no matter what is the outcome.




Wednesday 30 November 2011

SUNREIT - Value Invest Nov2011 Follow up

In Sept2011 http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/09/sunreits.html, I mentioned I did
invest in SUNREIT for a very long long term.
Is been 3 months already, seems like my investment is bearing some fruits, though slowly.
I have taken 1 time dividend and the 2nd dividend will be paying on 1/Dec.
Both dividend total up about 3+% and one can expect total annually will be around 6+%.

As my purchase price is 1.09, and today she is at 1.17, she has appreciated about 7%.
Anyway, at this current price, it is not a good entry point, I'll accumulate some more
when she retraces again (1.11~1.12 would be a good entry).
As long as our world do not go through a very long term  recession (or depression),
then I believe we can see REITS will be trending up slowly but surely.
Just an interesting information told by my good friend : Recession is where you still have your job and your neighbour is out of job while Depression is where you and your neighbour also out of job ;)





IVORY - Momentum Play

FA  :
For Momentum Play based on technically Analysis, as long as she is in Profit & there are news catalyst should quite enough.
Announcement on 11/Nov/11
IVORY PROPERTIES GROUP BERHAD ("IVORY" OR THE "COMPANY")
(I) PROPOSED PDA;
(II) PROPOSED JOINT VENTURE;
(III) PROPOSED RIGHTS ISSUE;
(IV) PROPOSED BONUS ISSUE;
(V) PROPOSED PROVISION OF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE;
(VI) PROPOSED INCREASE IN AUTHORISED SHARE CAPITAL; AND
(VII) PROPOSED AMENDMENTS.

TA:
MA       : 20MA is trending up, Price above all monitored MA line.
MACD : Going to bullish cross-over.
Stochastic : Trending up but yet to over sold.
Vol           : Above avg.
Entry at 1.01, Stop loss 0.94 & Profit =1.17


Saturday 26 November 2011

Know yourself ! Are you suitable to Invest or Trade ?

Lets start off with a Trader mindset, I categorised it 2 type
Novice Trader ( aka Gamblers)
1) A impatient person, he like to take profit as long as he sees profit (2 days~ 1 month).
2) Like to look at the trading screen a few times a day (nowadays with smartphone easier).
3) Like to listen to tips without analyse further.
4) Very excited on the market news/index high fluctuation and don't want to be left out. (Have herd mentality)
5) No trading plan, or with one but do not follow strictly.

Professional Trader (Aka seasoned trader)
1) Have gone thru the novice phase and have gain strong Technical Analysis knowledge.
2) One look at the screen the time he needs to enter and check on the progress once in awhile but not frequent.
3) Listen to tips but would scrutinise the recommended stock begin planning to enter.
4) Take the market news/index fluctuation  into account when planning his trade.
5) Follow strictly to his trading plan but may use different trading plan/strategies for different trades.


I would also categories Investor mindset into 2 type.
Amateur Investor (aka Aunties Uncles investor)
1) Very patient person, will keep his stocks for years if is negative but will take profit when profit >20%.
2) Does not look at the trading screen & still using remisier to ask on the stock prices.
3) Buy based on remisier/family member/friend recommendation.
4) Not much feeling in market news/index fluctuation/herd mentalities as they don't understand much.
5) No trading plan, all by experience / gut feel.

Professional Investor (Warren Buffet type ?)
1) Very patient person, may wait for years before taking profit.
2) Once bought, check on the screen once a day.
3) Do not listen to tips much but will follow a few good/Strong fundamental stock's business progress.
4) No feeling on the external market news as his main focus is the company business model, P&L, Progress & Growth. (Understand that the stocks price will go down according to market sentiments but believe that she will bounce back to a higher peak when sentiments improved )
5) Strictly follow his investment plan, if the fundamentals have change or growth has stagnant, is time to sell.


Well, from the above, have you ever wonder what type of person are you ?
And choosing the right strategies to suit your personalities will help you gain in the markets.
Hmmm..... I believe many people in the market are novice traders & does not think that having proper knowledge & strategies will help them gain in the market consistently(average in years) beating FD/bond rate (at least).

Note : In the long run, Novice traders will definite LOSE money while Amateur Investors may or may not earn money (depending on his/her wealth luck !), while Professional Traders / Investors is the ones who consistently earning money from the market. In our era, especially before year 2000, Professional Investors GAIN the most as you can see Warren Buffett has become the riches man in the world (comparing to all those who earn money from the market).

In order to be the 10% in the market who profited or not losing to the market comparing the 90%, one must be very firm on his strategies.

I myself is splitting my share investment portfolio into 60% Value investment & 40% Momentum play (trading). Given such bearish market situation, as in Malaysia market, we cannot short, gaining in momentum play would be a difficult task as we need to do counter-trend trading (higher risk, really need some luck here, haha ). And one should limit himself/herself to about 30%~40% of his portfolio in the market in order to preserve some capital for better bargaining when the market gets more hostile.




Wednesday 23 November 2011

Value Invest : Coastal followup Nov2011

Based on my previous recommendation http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/value-invest-coastal-5071.html as a value invest stock rated 5 star = Accumulate.  I did accumulate some solely base on FA at a discount from intrinsic value.

On 16/Nov, Alwayswin111 informed me, he has also bought into Coastal and taken profit at 2.00.
I also taken partial profit around this price. Then I decided to put in some TA touch by buying back around the blue shadow area (1.80~1.82). Well, I did not manage to get and she has rebounded, luckily I still hold on to some.

Considering our KLCI dropping 13 pts in the morning, while she only drops 1 sen and fight back to positive 4.3% when CI closes only -4.8pt, this may be sending out a signal she going to challenge her previous high (2.04) again. Well, lets see this time she manage to climb till the upper line of the channel (2.08~2.09) which coincide with 100MA line also. I will offload some more, before loading her back around the lower line of the channel. After all, I would like the keep this channel for a longer period as Value Investment.


New followers

Today I realise that I have a few new followers, keanheng, jeefoh & JOY, you all are welcome.
Since my blog is quite new, I have few followers, but I do appreciate anyone who is joining in and I would give priority to followers who may be interested in a particular stocks & would like me to have an analysis or discussion here.

Monday 21 November 2011

KFIMA Follow#2





Remember the TA entry I mentioned on 24/Oct under http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/kfima-momentum-play-value-invest.html (Entry will be 1.64, Stop loss close below 1.55 & Profit at 1.69) ? Well, she need about 3 weeks to achieve the first Profit 1.69 target. And in my 2nd follow-up , I still maintain to call for HOLD if one that have entered the stocks much earlier.




2 ways of trading using TA,

1) if one using TA based on break out strategy, one would have entered on 27/Oct at 1.65 during closing but considering the non attractive risk reward ratio , he may hesistated to entered. If he were to enter, he may profited at 1.69 (gaining only 2.4%), as he would not wait further as the psychology overwhelms him during 28/Oct~10/Nov where KFIMA drops to 1.60.

or

2) using TA based on "Buy at Support" Strategy (back-up by MACD >0), one would have entered between 2~10/Nov around 1.60~1.61 and using FA (intrinsic value around 1.86) as psychological strength to counter the FEAR . Given such overall market bearish sentiment, one may decide not to wait till 1.83 (3rd resistance or near intrinsic value), he should take profit at 1.75 (gaining 9%).


In conclusion,

1) Buy at support strategy is always better than breakout strategy in such volatile/bearish environment.

2) Buying good FA (with low PE) and undervalue stock (entry price is below intrinsic value), will help in boosting up some psychology mindset to hold for 3 weeks plus before closing position while acheiving decent profit.








Sunday 20 November 2011

Momentum play HIBISCS follow up

On 16/Nov, I was commenting that the support 0.695 able to sustain, then there can be a momentum play, indeed the next day, she able to reach above 0.725 (which is 16/Nov high) but the white candle comes with low volume. I come to realise that there are bearish divergence shown in MACD & Stochastic. Anyway, anything in the future is uncertain, maybe she still trends up while the CI drops :).

I went to the RHBINVEST marketchat Ipoh on 19/Nov and the chartist expert (cum fundamentalist) was recommending this stock for a trading buy.

So, ONLY if itch hand wins, I may consider picking her up around 0.65~0.72 and with a small position as currently KLCI did show a very uncertain situation and pointing toward a bigger drop. So, if a position is long, then the plan is to take profit around 0.81 due the the bearish divergence issue.

So, time will tell, how she perform in these few weeks. I will do a continue follow up on her around Mid/Dec.




Tuesday 15 November 2011

HIBISCS TA analysis


MACD      : Too late if to wait for her to signal. ( 8/Nov the spike up also not signal)
Stochastic  : No signal yet, still going down. Lets wait for her to be oversold.
Candle       : No bullish candle. One dark crow with high volume showing bearish.
Support      : Horizontal support at 0.71 broken, but there is still 20MA.

My opinion,
Not a good time to buy tomorrow morning, as this is like catching a falling knife. If she really want to rebound, then I say the odds is like going to Genting playing baccarat :)
Lets see how her price pans out tomorrow, if a bullish harami candle form by end of the day, then the probability of her continue uptrend will definitely increase.

Saturday 12 November 2011

Trading a company that being take-over

HPI (7919)


On 16/Jun/2011, HPI announced that she is being take-over by Oji Paper Sdn Bhd for an offer of RM4.40 per share.  Her price was immediately being jacked up & open at RM4.26 (from 3.93) but closed lower at RM4.18 (Down by 8 sen).

Those who bought her before 16/Jun gain an significant amount, I'm one of the lucky one who bought her at 3.68. I was hesitating whether to sell on that day but then I decided to let her fluctuate for a few days to see how her price moves. After a few days trading, her price has risen back to around 4.25 there and slowly going up bit by bit , around 1 sen in a few days . Then I decide to hold till the whole take over process and have my capital + profit (RM4.40 per share) returned back to me without me selling (MIB only charge me RM5 for the transaction process, so I say I save a bit on the brokerage charges). She was delisted on 23/Aug/11 at last traded price 4.36.

So, with a patience of 2+ months, I earned extra of RM0.14 per share compared if I were to sell at 4.26 on 16/June. About 3.3% additional gain for a 2+months (annualized = 13%), I would say worth the waiting .

Leader (4529)


On 18/Oct/11, Leader announced that she is being take over by HNGC for an offer of RM1.10 per share.
She gap up & open at RM1.02 (from RM 0.84) but again closed lower at RM0.985. This time I'm not so lucky, as I did not have any share on hand before the announcement.

Well, she behave a little bit different from HPI, her price continue going down for a few days before stabilising at RM0.95, then on 2/Nov evening , her directors send out an acceptance letter to accept the offer, and then next day, she gap up to RM0.98 and been stabilising at this price till now. Well, the whole take over process will be completed once majority of the shareholder accepted the offer. So, there is still around 12% meat left for this shares. Is it worth to invest ? I would say yes, for a 12% gain, with the only risk that HNGC did not get a majority approval. Given the price stability movement, I believe the success rate of the take over is quite high. Time will tell whether Leader will be a successful trade or not. Lets see.

Price movement after "take over" announcement is one of the indicator to watch
To predict the chances of a take-over success probability. One of the example is Latexx being announce of a take over offer on 2/Feb/2011 but the price keeps going down  for 1+ month before stabilising but then also the price is still slightly erratic. Lastly, there is an announcement on 16/May/2011 that the take over has failed.



Tuesday 8 November 2011

The Good and Bad of Fundamental and Technical Analysis


REI:  The below is an article I got from Alvin posted on July 26, 2010

There is always comparison between Fundamental Analysis (FA) and Technical Anaylsis (TA). There is enough supporters at each side of the house, claiming FA/TA is more superior than the other. So which is better? FA or TA?
The reason why market participants require FA or TA is because the flow of information is not perfect. This is especially so for the retail investors. Let’s imagine, if you are one of the first few people to know about something, you are able to act faster than most people. You do not need any FA or TA in this case. Hence, as a retail investor, whether you use FA or TA, you are indirectly trying to get this “information” as fast as possible. By getting this “information” faster than most market participants, you will earn a decent profit. In other words, the EARLIER and MORE RELIABLE information you get, the greater your profits. But then again, you can never do it better than the people higher up in the information chain.

The 2 considerations we will discuss are TIME and RELIABILITY. Let’s evaluate the pros and cons of FA and TA.

TIME – entry
FA allows you to buy EARLY (sometimes too early). When you spot a fundamentally good stock, you actually prefer to buy it when there is no hype or interest. Both volume and volatility (price fluctuations) would be low. This means that you would have got in earlier than most people, and wait for buying interest to come in when more people recognise the potential of the stock. You would be a very happy man, getting a profit in multiples of your capital invested. But there are 3 other scenarios that can happen. One, you bought too early, and you have to wait for very long, say 5 years, to see the results. Second, you bought early and the stock price went down, and stay down for a long time, proving you are wrong. Third, you bought early and the stock price went down. You recognised your mistake and sold off, only to regret when the stock rebound and reach higher heights.

TA allows you to buy EARLY ENOUGH (but less profits). On the other hand, TA allows you to buy “later”, but still early enough than most investors. TA is not able to prompt you to buy a cold stock. It will only shows a buy signal when the stock has shown it’s potential to move. But of course, you have to sacrifice some profits already. The good news is, you do not have to wait for a long time before you know you are right or wrong.

TIME – exit
FA valuates the stock price (or it is up to you when to sell). FA valuates the “true” stock price based on the earnings of the business. As a FA investor, you would usually sell when the stock price hits the valuation. If not, you are likely to hold as long as possible, provided the fundamentals do not change.
TA cut loss and profit take. For TA, the concept of cutting loss is very much embraced. The priority is to protect capital first. Once the stock price moves against your position and hit your cut loss price, you will get out of the position without questions. There are also some traders who exit when the price hits their profit target. They do this to maintain a consistent risk reward ratio. Others would want to ride the trend till it changes and reap as much profits as possible. But the key point is, TA always determine an exit point and it will save you from a market crash.


RELIABILITY
Maybe let me explain reliability first. When I say reliability, it means how accurate is it to pick a winning stock. We know that you do not need to be 100% right to win money in stocks, but you do need a certain degree of reliability to win money at the end of the day. To determine reliability, we need to know how stocks are priced. In my opinion, stock prices are basically perceptions of value to investors. And the perception is affected by valuation and emotion. Valuation means the expected worth of a particular stock while emotion refers to the state of greed and fear in the market. Sometimes, the price can be closer to the valuation, and at other times, the stock price can be ridiculously high or low.
FA is good at valuation. As mentioned previously, FA is about valuation of businesses. This is an area that FA does well. However, FA is not able to determine the market emotions. Some may argue that as more stocks becomes overvalued, it is a sign the market is euphoric. I would say it may not be so obvious, and it is also possible for you to find an undervalued stock during a bull run. And if the market crashes, your stock goes down with it.
TA is good at identifying market emotion. On the other hand, TA is basically trying to discern market emotions through the charts, and capitalise on the greed and fear of investors. The reliability of TA changes with market conditions. Some methods work badly in volatile market, getting whipsawed constantly. A FA investor would just ignore the volatility.

As you can see, FA and TA cannot cover both the causes of stock price. There are many pros and cons for FA and TA. For me, I like the FA entry, getting in at a discount. I like the TA exit, giving the ability to reap maximum profits and protecting me against a crash. It does not matter which method you use, the most important thing is to find your edge in the market. And it will take time, effort and money to find it.

REI : For me, I will split my portfolio to Momentum Play (purely entry & exit based on TA but put a little touch on fundamental, i.e. will not touch company that is losing money for years) and Value Invest (entry based on FA , eg. high discount from intrinsic value with some FA signals but will exit based on TA, i.e. tgt profit / trailing stop loss).

Sunday 6 November 2011

Steps of Value Investing

Well, when I put "Value Invest" under my Post title, these means I'm putting in my watchlist or Portfolio the stock mentioned under this post. Well, how do I play value invest stocks ?

Hmmm....let take Coastal for example, based on my last blog on Coastal http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/value-invest-coastal-5071.html,  she didnt pass my TA entry criteria (to close at 1.98 or above), but since I going for value invest play, I've started to accumulate her as she is a real gem in terms of her fundamental point of view.

I'm setting myself a guide/procedure to play value invest stocks as below:
a) start small qty buy when price is at 25%~35% discount to intrinsic value.
b) accumulate slowly if drop further, maybe every buy would be 5~10% interval (e.g. 1st buy is 35% discount, for 5% interval, next will be 40%, 45%, 50 % discount and so on from intrinsic value).
c) start accumulate more quantity when she starts showing reversal (e.g above 200MA).
d) The company announcement is important to understand.
e) Every quarter results is an important indicator to decide to further accumulate or cut loss.
f) Strong psychology to HOLD when watching day to day high fluctuation of regional and KLCI .
g) Start to sell some (one third? half?) quantity when she starts to give 30% profit from your average price.
h) Keep the rest to sell only when reach near to intrinsic value OR keep till trend reversal signals (e.g drop back below 200MA)

Wednesday 2 November 2011

SBCCORP

TA
Her price action have climbed out of the Falling wedge but still lack of volumes . (Breaking out of a falling wedge will leads to price action going upwards).
No signal from MACD yet but there is a few reds, if turn green, then there will begin the climb.
Price still above 20MA.
So, to entry, wait for MACD signal.

FA
Intrinsic value = RM1.48 based on 25.8% growth (provided she can maintain this growth rate)
So, now at 36% discount.
Fundamental wise, I would rate her : HOLD/SMALL BUY since we are not out of longterm downtrend .



Saturday 29 October 2011

KFIMA follow up





alwayswin111 said...
Rei,
Could you help me to look at KFIMA chart.
My opinion. KFIMA is trading in a box range (1.45-1.68).
On Friday it closed with a doji at 1)upper boll band 2)upper range of box. 3)below price resistance
I think if it breaks 1.68 strongly , then can do a trade
E>1.68. S1..64. T1.87 with immediate resistance at 1.77
But if it is bearish on Monday.. Then we wait for pullback to 1.62-1.60
Closing below 1.62 would be very bearish i.e evening star at resistance
Indicators are very bullish at the moment.


Rei comment.....
Have you entered Kfima ?
Well she is trading in a range of 1.44~1.69, my chart showed a bid difference from you, maybe your chart did not adjust the dividend recently.
Yes, if she trade above above 1.69, there will be a technical breakout from her trading range (box). But the immediate resistance is too near 1.75. Again, her reward risk ratio is not so good. In TA point of view, she is not consider a good trade set-up. But as my previous post http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/kfima-momentum-play-value-invest.html  mentioned a HOLD based on her FA. Another point of view in TA terms is MACD line has go above zero and she may be continued climbing the short term uptrend channel (retrace, up and retrace for a few time before reaching 1.75 or 1.83.)




Thursday 27 October 2011

Value Invest - COASTAL (5071)

After studying her for some time on her fundamental strengths and with a confirmation from my friend (who has a firm wealth building strategy using value investment), I decided to post her out as she has started to show some signal technically.

Fundamentally (Rate : 5 star !!!)
This is what I want to stress , she is a real GEM in terms of value investing.
Today closing price = 1.94 
Current PE ratio = 4.67  (based on last year EPS)
TTM PE ratio =4.12
2010 ROE = 33.34%
Dividend Yield ~ 3.4%
Intrinsic value = 4.65 (based on a very conservative & discounted calculation).

Since now she is at 1.94, which is at 41% of her intrinsic, she is a real bargain and gem.

Note : OSK rated Fair Value = 3.38

Technically, 

Stochastic has already given buy signal on 25/Oct but vol was not convincing then.
Today, MACD has flash a buy signal coming in (tomorrow confirm ?).
TA strategy : Breakout play
Entry =1.98  , Cut loss if break below 1.79, Profit target = 2.19.













Mission Accomplished ! Well done Supermx !

As per the trading plan in http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/bingo-uoadev-supermx.html, Supermx has reached his 2nd profit target RM3.60 (22% gain in 5 days) after reaching 3.41 in the morning. His intraday high is 3.63. So, for momentum play, the mission has been accomplished. Seems like 'superman" finally get rid of the kryptonite thats been affecting her flight for 1 year + , haha....

Technically, he need to flight above the 3.60 and the 200MA enemy (resistance!) to break free. As usual super hero cannot win all in a single battle, if not the movie will end fast (haha!). So, expect some tough fight here or maybe our Superman finally fully charged up and leap in a single bound ?









Monday 24 October 2011

KFIMA -Momentum Play & Value invest

I heard of this KFIMA stock quite a while but have not been purchase her before.
Recently, I found she has just broke above the 200MA which quite a lot of stocks in KLCI
still below this.

TA (Technical Analysis)
MACD 4R1G just flash buy signal and now her price is following a short term uptrend line.
Entry will be 1.64, Stop loss close below 1.55 & Profit at 1.69. Volume after 10am need to be >85k units.
Hmm, technically, the risk reward ratio is not attractive. Only Fast in Fast out. Well, what about bull & hold for a while in fundamental point of view ?



FA (Fundamental Analysis)
I have go thru her 2002~2011 EPS growth. Very attractive in the last 5 years. Based on the growth & earnings, she at least worth >1.83 (her recent peak). Cashflow is good. I'm in the middle of checking her intrinsic value (= her real worth if you treat yourself a long term investor), will blog out her worth later.
At 1.62 today, her PE ratio =6 .

25/Oct
Finally calculated out her intrinsic value (Fair value for some may use), she worth about 1.86 after taking into consideration she is a small cap & also assuming her EPS growth will be consistent or similar to these recent few years. I would rate her as a HOLD for FA point of view. Note : My rating for Accumulate for FA stocks is those with huge discount >30~50%% from her intrinsic value.



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