Below is my past analyses/comment on KFIMA (for Value Invest),
24/Oct
FA (Fundamental Analysis)
I have go thru her 2002~2011 EPS growth. Very attractive in the last 5 years. Based on the growth & earnings, she at least worth >1.83 (her recent peak). Cashflow is good. I'm in the middle of checking her intrinsic value (= her real worth if you treat yourself a long term investor), will blog out her worth later.At 1.62 today, her PE ratio =6 .
25/Oct
Finally calculated out her intrinsic value (Fair value for some may use), she worth about 1.86 after taking into consideration she is a small cap & also assuming her EPS growth will be consistent or similar to these recent few years. I would rate her as a HOLD for FA point of view. Note : My rating for Accumulate for FA stocks is those with huge discount >30~50%% from her intrinsic value.
21/Nov
2 ways of trading using TA,
1) if one using TA based on break out strategy, one would have entered on 27/Oct at 1.65 during closing but considering the non attractive risk reward ratio , he may hesistated to entered. If he were to enter, he may profited at 1.69 (gaining only 2.4%), as he would not wait further as the psychology overwhelms him during 28/Oct~10/Nov where KFIMA drops to 1.60.
or
2) using TA based on "Buy at Support" Strategy (back-up by MACD >0), one would have entered between 2~10/Nov around 1.60~1.61 and using FA (intrinsic value around 1.86) as psychological strength to counter the FEAR . Given such overall market bearish sentiment, one may decide not to wait till 1.83 (3rd resistance or near intrinsic value), he should take profit at 1.75 (gaining 9%).
2 ways of trading using TA,
1) if one using TA based on break out strategy, one would have entered on 27/Oct at 1.65 during closing but considering the non attractive risk reward ratio , he may hesistated to entered. If he were to enter, he may profited at 1.69 (gaining only 2.4%), as he would not wait further as the psychology overwhelms him during 28/Oct~10/Nov where KFIMA drops to 1.60.
or
2) using TA based on "Buy at Support" Strategy (back-up by MACD >0), one would have entered between 2~10/Nov around 1.60~1.61 and using FA (intrinsic value around 1.86) as psychological strength to counter the FEAR . Given such overall market bearish sentiment, one may decide not to wait till 1.83 (3rd resistance or near intrinsic value), he should take profit at 1.75 (gaining 9%).
22/Nov (inside comment post)
Btw, what software charting you use ? After being adjusted for dividend ex 29/Sept on the chart, the gap you saw on 5/Aug should be 1.70~1.72 which is filled yesterday. So, I would see if she broke the resistance at 1.75, the next immediate resistance is 1.83.
Anyway, in these few days, she may retrace but I'm expected support at 1.68 & 1.64 would be a good one before she continue her short term uptrend (provided index do not tank badly)
Indeed from 23~25/Nov, 1.68 provided a strong support & she finally have reached her 1.86 intrinsic value.
Moral of the story :
If we were to based on TA to in out, we would not gain the whole 26 cents (16% gain) and mostly would be contributed to the brokerage.
But given the recent market volatility, can one stomach the up down price movement ? Again, following one trading plan initially before any long position should not have any regret no matter what is the outcome.
