SUNREIT NOV2014 FOLLOW-UP

Is been nearly 2 months since I pen down something.
Is been a bad month for the mid to long term investor as they see their holdings back to their purchase price.

Example : My friend has been holding his Supermx (entry ~2.06) & Pantech (entry ~0.93) since 2013, and as Friday closing , he is at losing/breakeven position after holding for more than 1 year. Supermx close at 2.03 and Pantech at 0.93. Imagine if one is following strictly based on charts to sell Supermx at 2.65 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 28%) and sell Pantech at 1.00 (sell signal for mid term investor, will gain 7%).

I believe one really need to know when to sell. There is less than 10% of KLCI's  stocks which really gain consistently  throughout very long term holding. Nowadays every 5 or 10 years will be a big downtrend which will reset all your gains. So, I would really advised KLCI stock investor to learn how to let go of his beloved so call very strong FUNDAMENTAL stock and buy back later.

Sunreit is my long term portfolio, some portion I have been holding for >3 years which give me a good 15% annual compounding while the rest enter later did not do a good job in the annual compounding return. During the downtrend, I have to bear the pain on holding the loses nearly for 7 months. Luckily the downtrend only last 7 months. This time, I will do it differently, I will sell at least 75% (or maybe 100%) of my Sunreit holding when she break my weekly trailing stop at 1.47. Then will come back for her when she show signs of changing back to uptrend. Well , lets see this support 1.47 will hold or not.

Update on Pantech & Malton Apr2014

I have been keeping some Pantech under my  Portfolio 2 (VaIue Invest with Trend trading - VITT).  

She did went against the initial trend and went down mid term downtrend for a few months. I update on Jan2014 http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2014/01/jan2014-pantech.html. Finally, she has break above the downtrend and charge towards the short term uptrend. If she can broke the 1.04 resistance, then the medium term uptrend will be confirmed.

I went into Malton again at 0.9325 averagely. I bought using breakout strategy but too bad, she's not breaking through. Now consolidating towards the 20MA, lets see whether there will be a strong rebound to bring her breaking the 0.985/0.99 resistance to reach the psychological resistance RM1.00. Fundamentally she quite good, having all those developments in Klang valleys.

Lets see how both of them goes.

Jan2014 Pantech

I have a friend who is accumulating Pantech based on fundamental and he target at least 50% profit before letting go. He bought it around RM0.945 average. Pantech fly up to 1.1~ 1.14 three times. Then another friend of mine just taken profit around 1.1. If he would have sold at 1.1 (many analyst report mentioned FV around 1.10), he would have profit 16.4% x 3 = 49.2% . So, before this breakdown, he would have reach near to his 50% target.

But now she has broken down and close at 0.93. I'm wondering is a buy and hold strategy really works based on fundamentals or one who play fundamental strategy should have taken some profit first after the share run up 16.7% (Based on Fibonacci 1st resistance). Well, this really makes me ponder further how our PEGGY blogger make 50+% profit just using buy and hold strategy top up with dollar cost averaging. Hmmm....PEGGY did also have Pantech in her portfolio. Or I would say he really have some luck during her stock selection where quite a few stocks rose 100% and above. Another thing is Patience that she really have. Thumbs up to him.

At this price of RM0.93, Pantech is trading at PE 9.7 (I just took this data from KLSE Screener Apps). If I were to see her latest Q3 EPS =2.24 and if this were to continue for another 3 quarter without much changes, then with she would deem worth only around 1.07 for a PE=12 (best PE ratio for the last 5 years) , thus she is still not consider fully value.  But based on the breakdown chart , bearish I would say, broke 2 support at 1 go, she may end up at RM0.90 or may just test the RM0.86 again. Chartwise she is at medium term downtrend and may need to catalyst for her to do a good uptrend reversal. But again, those who interested to catch knife may get some around RM0.90 or RM0.86 to do a quick snipe. Also one who have some position lock, can do some dollar cost averaging if he/she have the patience to hold at least for another quarter to check on her revenue will be increased ?

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PANTECH

I have a friend who bought Pantech way back early this year 2011 based on some buy call from a FA Sifu.
I wonder how he based his BUY CALL. Hmmm... though Pantech is at a low PE but there is 2 criteria if based on FA should be out of touch as a BUY.
1st : Pantech profit has been dropping since year 2010 and 2011, she peak at 2009.
2nd : Pantech has been trading at max PE of 6 !!! when we are at bull run around end 2009.

When the call in beginning 2011 when the price is around 0.73, Pantech is trading around 6 which means is fully value. Given the 2011 EPS result has drop 6.45, if we were to use PE=6 as a guide, Pantech price should be trading around RM0.39 only. Now, you can see why Pantech has price has been trading lower & lower and as at 30/Sept, she is trading at RM0.42 only, hmmmm, I strongly believe she will reach RM0.39 in the very near future. Lets see, given the bearish market as at now and if she is not able to improve her business, my friend who bought at RM0.73 is going to HOLD for a VERY VERY LONG TIME with the miserable PAPER LOSS in her portfolio.