Limit down cases study : Coastal

I pick Coastal to follow-up the following trading day behaviour after the abnormal gap down on the Friday 21/June/2013. Indeed, as I predicted she will gap up till Limit Up, I did queue at 1.93, but did get any, I try to buy at 1.94 but the system does not allow me to, but don't know why later some trades can be down at 1.94. The next day 25/June, due to some hesitation to chase further as the market crashes badly on Monday.
If I were to queue at 1.94, again I cant get any, as she gap up to 1.98 before pressure back to 1.93 (2 sen above yesterday closing).

Anyway, she continue her climb and today she reaches back the Thursday (20/Jun/13) closing price, 2.10. So, now everything back to normal. Here you can see a 30% limit down, needs a 30% limit up with 2 more consecutive up day before she can recover to her original prices. Thats mathematics, down is faster than up.

Btw, RHB just upgrade her Fair Value to RM3.00. The reason being given by them is as follow

"The Edge Financial Daily reported today that Coastal Contracts (COCO) is acquiring its first jack-up drilling rig for USD200m (MYR641m). Assuming an 80:20 debt-to-equity ratio, COCO’s balance sheet will be leveraged up to some 0.46x net gearing based on its latest quarterly numbers. Given the change in the company’s earnings dynamics, we upgrade the stock to a BUY from NEUTRAL, as we raise the PE ratio from 8x to 10x. Our FV is thereby nudged up to MYR3.00 from MYR2.33.
The article mentioned that COCO will only take delivery of the jack-up rig in 2H14 (likely end-3Q14). "


Rei comment :

I got the meaning from the article is the recurring income will only starts improving around 3Q14 but now is only 2Q13, hmmmm...so she "may" only start to climb towards her targeted price around Mid/2014 ???

Anyway, I'm putting a more conservative approach, my intrinsic calculation (reduce from my last blog up due to her dwindling quarterly earnings) is around RM2.21.


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21May2013 What a day ! 6 Limit Down & 2 Limit Up !

Well, I didnt see this before, imagine during the last 10 minutes, a huge fund throw in substantial amount of shares to 6 good FA stocks and cause them limit down or near limit down. This is really worth to record down in my blog and I really witness one of them moving drastically (Coastal).

DOWN !!!
Coastal : Close at 1.48, -RM0.62 send (-29.5%)
CBIP :  Close at 1.93, -RM0.82 (-29.8%)
TDM : Close at 2.90, -RM 1.24 (-30%)
BKawan : Close at 13.46 , -RM5.76 (-30%)
HSPlant : Close at 1.89, -RM0.81 (-30%)
BJToto : Close at 3.20, -RM1.01 (-24%)

UP !!!
JCY : Close at 0.90, +RM0.24 (+36.4%)
Star : Close at 3.71, +RM0.85 (+29.7%)

I would say those who queue a few bid low during 4.44pm for the above Limit Down counter, suddenly able get at a very cheap price and gain heavily on monday, like striking lottery. I would believe that these counters would go back at least near to her 21May 4.44 pm prices .

On the other hand, if you were queueing at the seller price at 4.44 pm, you already immediately strike a 30% lottery and got to sold at the limit up price. Let say, you were queueing JCY to sell at RM0,70, suddenly you get another RM0.20 free due to the 5 minutes matching to close at RM0.90. What a gain !!!

Coastal ( I was lucky to view this irratic movements)
At 4.44pm, she was still trading at buyer 2.16, seller 2.17, and last done at 2.17, suddenly during 4.45pm to 4.50pm, the matching was vigorous, price fluctuating on the matching price, she was going to match at 1.47, I able to queue some at 1.47, but last minute, she changes to 1.48, and I miss the queue, really luck is not on my side. Imagine 2.17 to 1.48, all in all she was hammer down RM0.69 in that 5 minutes time. A 2 year all time low. Lets see all 6 of them will be back to their rightful price in Monday.

And this is what The Stars news commented.

Bursa: Trades ‘valid and genuine’

By CHOONG EN HAN
han@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: The seemingly unusual market activity that saw sharp price gyrations in several stocks in the final 10 minutes of trading yesterday was valid and genuine, according to Bursa Malaysia.

Six counters from mid-caps to big ones, namely, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd, Batu Kawan Bhd, TDM Bhd, CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (CBIP), Coastal Contracts Bhd and Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd, hit limit-down, or a 30% plunge, with a combined trade of RM43.1mil in that short time window during pre-close.

While the trading pattern may seem like an “error in trading” could have taken place, a Bursa Malaysia representative when contacted byStarBizWeek clarified: “With regards to the eight stocks which hit their limits-up (two) and down (six), Bursa Malaysia has investigated the matter and has confirmed with the broker that the basket order, which was from their institutional client, was valid and genuine.”

In yesterday's trade, Hap Seng shed 81 sen to RM1.89, Batu Kawan lost RM5.76 to RM13.46, TDM declined RM1.24 to RM2.90, CBIP decreased 82 sen to RM1.93, Coastal Contracts was down 62 sen to RM1.48, andBerjaya Sports Toto fell RM1.01 to RM3.20.

At the other end of the spectrum, JCY International Bhd gained 24 sen, or 36%, to 90 sen and Star Publications (M) Bhd shot up 85 sen, or 29%, to RM3.71.

In the broader market, the FBM KLCI shed 6.49 points, or 0.37%, to 1,755.85 points, with 306 gainers, 512 losers, and 267 counters unchanged.

Over 2.05 billion shares valued at RM3.78bil were traded.

SBCCORP : If you have the patience to hold from 2Nov2011 till now

I mentioned about her in 2011. http://www.reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/11/sbccorp.html

The below is what I have mentioned.

"FA
Intrinsic value = RM1.48 based on 25.8% growth (provided she can maintain this growth rate)
So, now at 36% discount."

At that time her price is RM0.94, and in just about 1.5 years, as of today she is price at RM1.60, a whopping price appreciation of 70% !!! . Remember I didnt even take into account of the dividend  Thats the beauty of buying a small size high growth stock, buying her in Nov2011 is very low risk, the only big risk is IF there is another global crisis where she may need to be tested on her cash flow.

Let see RM1.60 is above her intrinsic value as of her latest fiscal 2013 year EPS=32.48sen . She is still trading at a very low PE 4.9.  Based on 2012~2013, her growth is 12% , if she can maintain this growth, I upgraded her intrinsic value has jumped to RM2.04. Well, those who are holding since Nov2011, still have a reason to continue holding as she is still trading below her intrinsic value.

Technical, she give a buy signal today but the resistance of 10 year all time high is a point to take note 1.69. Lets she how she pans out in the coming months. 

Value Invest : SUPERMX

When I say value invest, meaning I'm will be hold.ing based on her fundamental. The period again depends whether want to gain a higher % of profit or just a short trade. Well, I have enter into position at 2.00 when I mentioned about her the last post. She have jump out from the short term downtrend but slowly dissipate back to the trendline level. Today she just ex-div (6% of par value of RM0.50 = RM0.03), so my cost would be RM1.97.

Based on my intrinsic value calculation, Supermx is valued at RM2.82.
Let see what the analyst Fair Value.
Today she is at 2.00, 4 out of 5 analyst say is a BUY.
Well, RHB target price is similar to mine :)
So they were accurate, then at least a gain of >16% would be good.

Date	Open Price	Target Price	Upside/Downside	Price Call	Source
31/05/2013	2.04	2.60	+0.56 (27.45%)	BUY	TA
31/05/2013	2.04	2.84	+0.80 (39.22%)	BUY	RHB
31/05/2013	2.04	2.39	+0.35 (17.16%)	BUY	KENANGA
31/05/2013	2.04	2.37	+0.33 (16.18%)	BUY	CIMB
31/05/2013	2.04	2.04	0.00 (0.00%)	HOLD	ALLIANCE

Currently Supermx is trading at a TTM PE of 10.8 which is quite low among her peers.
I'm using TTM (Trailing Twelve months as I think it is more real time rather than Maybank ost data which only used the closing financial year EPS)
Lets have a look on her peers :
Top Glove : Price 650 TTM EPS = 36.39, so TTM PE=17.8 (Maybank ost data = 19.93)
Harta : Price 574  TTM EPS = 32.11, so TTM PE= 17.9  (Maybank ost data = 17.95)
Kossan :  Price 440   TTM EPS 36.2, so TTM PE =12.2  (Maybank ost data = 13.47)

So, if there is some catch up to follow her peers, Supermx should at least trade at 12.2 ? which the price would be around RM 2.25 ? or trade at PE 17, then the price would be RM3.13 ?

What about growth, according to RHB, she will grow around 11~13%.
Hmm, when I decided to keep a share, I would like to have some dividend to make my keeping worth, at least around Fix Deposit rate. Well, she is forecast to give around 3% this year.

Let see whether she lives up to her name.....SuperMax ......