Trend channel follow-up -Paramon

On 10Mar2012, I mentioned Paramon when she is trending near the bottom of her channel, see below for part of my comment or you may need to refresh in details what I have wrote at http://reiccs.blogspot.com/search/label/Paramon

......"So, how to play ?
To those traders that does not want to miss the opportunity, one should enter position if Monday intraday can goes higher than 1.61. These again based on probability, the true support may not be 1.58, so one should enter with a smaller position and keep some remaining bullets to average down at 1.52 if really the trendline A is the way the market really wants Paramon to go.

What about you are conservative ? So, just wait till 1.52 to enter, if she really doesn't goes down to this level, just forget about her and moves on to hunt for another better probability stocks....."



Today's comment

On 23Apr, she started to trade around 1.52 which even the conservatives also can enter. Remember ! even with TA, one cannot be accurate till the exact cents level when I mention about target entry price.

As of 21/June/2012 (is been 3 months +) , she has finally reach back her upper channel line, awesome right ? One can have his own sweet time to purchase around 1.51~1.62 as she fluctuate on these range for about 2 months. Meaning there is no rush in buying when she has reach the bottom of the channel line.

So, is it time to sell now? If on3 were to follow the trend channel game plan, it is time to sell. Again, remember one cannot get every juice out of an orange. She may breakout from the upper channel line but hey with this channel range, one already profit 18% for a mere 3 months period. One should not be greedy.

FBMKLCI trend: Sideway or Downward ?

Our CI is at the edge of the "Megaphone" channel. Looking at the Stochastic, she has a high possibility to move downwards if the 100MA not able to sustain. Let see how she goes on tomorrow. If she breaks back into the channel, then we must get ready for the rough ride downwards....

Follow up on TSH

On 18May, I post on the missing the cut loss point & hope for a fruitful rebound.
"d) What if you miss the boat, and now is too painful to cut, there is still a last chance where she may have a technical rebound back to 2.26 though the rebound may realize or may not realize. So, thats where the HA (Hope Analysis) come in.......;)"

 Finally, today she has reached the 2.26 initial cut loss point. For a Trader who follow his/her strategy strictly, today he should cut loss at 2.26~2.27 and do not "hope" there is further upside to recover his loss. This is due to his initial trading plan has failed and he has to bear the small loss. For a trader, the strategy is to maintain cash always to fight another day by having small loss and having more than 50% success rate of overall position taken.

But for an medium term investor, one would have average down around 2.12 and wait for this rebound to check one can profit from his average price. In this circumstances, being and investor and to let him escape the pain of being actual real money loss while bearing only paper loss. Being a medium term investor, he must have enough money in his portfolio in order for him to average down (the best method is dollar cost averaging).

So, which Method you prefer ???? Again whether one is a pure trader or investor, a well trained MIND, a proper defined and back test METHOD and MONEY MANAGEMENT still applies.