Monday 21 November 2011

KFIMA Follow#2





Remember the TA entry I mentioned on 24/Oct under http://reiccs.blogspot.com/2011/10/kfima-momentum-play-value-invest.html (Entry will be 1.64, Stop loss close below 1.55 & Profit at 1.69) ? Well, she need about 3 weeks to achieve the first Profit 1.69 target. And in my 2nd follow-up , I still maintain to call for HOLD if one that have entered the stocks much earlier.




2 ways of trading using TA,

1) if one using TA based on break out strategy, one would have entered on 27/Oct at 1.65 during closing but considering the non attractive risk reward ratio , he may hesistated to entered. If he were to enter, he may profited at 1.69 (gaining only 2.4%), as he would not wait further as the psychology overwhelms him during 28/Oct~10/Nov where KFIMA drops to 1.60.

or

2) using TA based on "Buy at Support" Strategy (back-up by MACD >0), one would have entered between 2~10/Nov around 1.60~1.61 and using FA (intrinsic value around 1.86) as psychological strength to counter the FEAR . Given such overall market bearish sentiment, one may decide not to wait till 1.83 (3rd resistance or near intrinsic value), he should take profit at 1.75 (gaining 9%).


In conclusion,

1) Buy at support strategy is always better than breakout strategy in such volatile/bearish environment.

2) Buying good FA (with low PE) and undervalue stock (entry price is below intrinsic value), will help in boosting up some psychology mindset to hold for 3 weeks plus before closing position while acheiving decent profit.








4 comments:

  1. Rei
    I think KFIMA is facing resistance as of yesterday.
    1) spinning top rejecting previous high of 1.75.
    2) there is also a gap resistance at 1.77-1.79(05aug11)
    3) RSI and stochastic is having negative divergence
    4)Stochastic shows bearish crossover in oversold area
    If KFIMA is unable to hold 1.69 price may start to retreat and test the 1.60 level again.
    Your opinion please .

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi 111,
    Yes, KFIMA is facing resistance at 1.75.
    Btw, what software charting you use ? After being adjusted for dividend ex 29/Sept on the chart, the gap you saw on 5/Aug should be 1.70~1.72 which is filled yesterday. So, I would see if she broke the resistance at 1.75, the next immediate resistance is 1.83.
    Anyway, in these few days, she may retrace but I'm expected support at 1.68 & 1.64 would be a good one before she continue her short term uptrend (provided index do not tank badly)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Rei
    I am also using Chartnexus . Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought a gap needs to be filled by a real body and not shadows. That is why I interprete the 21st October candle as not filling the gap.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 111,
    Since you are using CNX chart, I would suggest you go to "View>Price adjustment setting>Enable all". This will do adjustment to your chart to have proper technical analysis.

    Definition of Gaps
    Empty space on a chart where no trading has occurred.
    Since Shadows is trading done during intradays, the gap is considered filled. Some traders even consider the gaps is filled when the shadow has near to the end of the gap eventhough not fully touch.

    ReplyDelete

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