Wednesday 18 January 2012

Do your Maths !

I would like my readers and myself to ponder on these questions.

Q1) What achievement should we get annually to be worth while to be in the market ?
Q2) At what annual return are you achieving in these 5 years ? Are we still far off ?
Q3) Are you persistent enough to learn/discipline to improve to achieve your target level ?

To answer these questions,
I recently realised that about 20% of Public Mutual Funds are achieving a compounding annual return of 10~15% in the last 5 years. The best Fund (Public SmallCap) is achieving 14.4% compounding annual return which means 100% return in last 5 years.

So, to be in market , one must at least Profiting 10% return annually CONSISTENTLY out of your total allocated portfolio. Someone may boost they are profiting 30% or even 100% from the price they bought. Say one bought supermx at RM3 and sold at RM6, yeah !!! a 100% return. But but but, do you use all your allocated fund to buy just one stock. Too risky right ? you may end up buying a stock that that 20 years to achieve 100% return.

See my title above, " Do you maths" !!! If one has allocated RM100k for trading/investing, meaning his portfolio must reach RM200k in 5 years time in order to achieve similar results as the best fund in Public Mutual. If not the best, he/she must at least win the good one at 10% annually.

Some may think is easy, say easier than to done, let target a 15% compounding annually return (which will make your portfolio of RM100k becomes RM201k.
Example
2009 = 30% return (impressive, you are wondering, wow I'm getting rich sooner but is a bull run...lah)
2010 = 10% return (tougher time as there is a slump for few months but you still think I making 10% what)
2011 = losing 15% (shit! due to this EU problem dragging whole world down),
2012 =forecast to achieve 15% (okay, lets do it and get back to track)
But in the 5th year (2013), oooops, you need to achieve a whopping 44% to achieve the compounding annual return of 15%. Shit ! how to achieve a 44%, I need a super bull run.....

Can't get it ? see below
1st year RM100K becomes  RM130K (30% profit)
2nd year RM130K becomes RM143K (10% profit)
3rd year RM143K end up with RM121.5K (15% lost)
4th year RM121.5 becomes RM139.7K (15% profit)
5th year RM139.7 becomes RM201.1K (NEED 44% profit)

So, knowledge & persistent is important. Losing 1 year will de-rail the whole compounding plan.
In trading/Investment, as Alexander Elder said, we need to master the 3M,  " MIND, METHOD & MONEY MANAGEMENT ". Studying is one thing, EXPERIENCE with knowledge is the utmost important.


1 comment:

  1. Yes, exactly, you have hit the nail on the head! Think about it. You start at 100, you lose 50pc so now you have 50. You think, ok, if it goes up 50pc next year I am back at even. NO! If it goes up 50pc next year you are only at 75! To get back to even you need it to go up a full 100pc. Do not ever forget this point.

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